Some would argue that this was an exciting, eventful sports weekend. Others might say it sucked beyond all comprehension. Me? Well, I'm far more "others" than "some".
Saturday's college football featured three notable turds--the Oklahoma-Texas "Red River Rivalry", Florida's ho-hum performance and late-game referee bailout, and Ohio State's steaming, fly-filled pile of dung versus Purdue. After a catastrophic performance last weekend, I vowed I would not bet college football anymore this year. Well, that turned out to be a lie. I bet it lightly, taking baby steps back into the ring, and won 3 of the 4 wagers I placed for a modest gain. And by modest, I mean, about enough to cover one meal and one drink at Ruth's Chris.
*Interesting snippet about Purdue that I noticed this morning: Drew Brees of the Saints is 5-0 this year. Kyle Orton of the Broncos is 5-0 this year. I'm sure much has been made of their Boilermaker connection and undefeatedness. But the one that most people probably didn't pick up on--former PU quarterback Curtis Painter is currently the backup to the Colts' Peyton Manning, who also sits at 5-0 for the year. And this weekend Purdue pulls off an upset of Ohio State in practically dominant fashion? Something is going on here.
Naturally, college football was just a tiny appetizer in preparation for Sunday. I pulled out very few stops with my... ahem... "friendly stakes". And of course, it was a total shitstorm. Very little reading, analyzing, or researching could have prepared ANYONE for certain events--such as:
Or, you know:
Unhappy face.
If my net return from the day were to show up on SEC filings, it would be the kind to be displayed (in parentheses). Or possibly in red ink. It was not good, friends. It was not terrible, either, as I took advantage of some early games, like the Chiefs cover and victory, the Texans cover, the Panthers victory (which Jake Delhomme made far, FAR harder than it need be--I stand by my Jeff Garcia claim. Come on, John Fox, I know you have it in you.), the Ravens cover, the plethora of points in the Saints game, and the fact that the Chiefs and Redskins was going to be one of the most horrendous displays of offense since... well, Week 5 (Hey, Derek Anderson! You won 6-3! What are you going to do next?).
Those early gains ended abruptly, though. The main culprit for the losses is certainly the Eagles. I might violate many of the textbook rules for sports betting week to week, but one of the ones that I try to avoid (and failed miserably to do this week) was putting too many eggs in one basket. My basket for this week was the Eagles. And they spoiled rotten pretty quickly, with little run defense, little run offense, an inability to convert third downs or get to the red zone, and JaMarcus Russell's finest hour since the Tampa game we hold in our hearts so dear.
Aside from the invaluable lesson re-learned about not banking too much on one team, there were a number of other things I took from the week that I hope to remember from here on out (though, will admittedly probably ignore).
1. Never Overestimate a Rookie Quarterback -- Yes, Mark Sanchez has been terrific so far this year. And nobody can argue that it was his fault they lost last Monday night to the Dolphins. Ronnie Brown and the wildcat just ripped the Jets' defense to shreds. But he's still a rookie. And the lumps will come. And like yesterday, they will sometimes (and hopefully not often) come in the form of 5 interceptions. Credit to the Jets' defense for keeping that game close--well, let's be real, credit the Bills' pathetic offense. Sanchez's quarterback rating for the game was 8.3. Which would be an impressive IMDb rating or earthquake, but this scale goes to 158.3, not 10. After a 3-0 start, the Jets are now 3-3. Which makes sense. This was a .500 team with Brett Favre this year, and coming into it, I thought they were about a .500 team with Sanchez, if not a little worse. He's been better than expected, but I doubt I will see many more -10 point lines for the Jets as the season goes on.
2. When There's Weather, Advantage to the Team That's Used to It -- Sure, the Titans have played in snow before. And as late as last year, their smashmouth, defense-oriented style of football would have been perfect for the snow. But snow in Foxboro? That's Tom Brady territory. That's Bill Belichick territory. They've been there, they've done that all before, and when you can chuck up 300 yards and 5 scores in the first half of a game on a snow-covered field, that's a good way of saying, "You're not on our level." The Titans can't really stop anyone in perfect conditions, but I think once both teams came out of the tunnel and the game started, there wasn't much question about who was going to win. (-9.5 was a very fair spread for that game, don't let the result fool you.) Same goes for rain in Seattle and mudslides in Pittsburgh.
1b./2b. When a Player Publicly States He's Never Played in the Cold, It's a Bad Sign -- I missed this this week, but during the Jets' broadcast the announcers couldn't help but harp on Mark Sanchez's candid remarks that he's never played in sub-50 degree temperature. Game conditions at the Meadowlands weren't nightmarish, but they were bitter and windy, not good for a guy fresh out of USC who probably wears sweatshirts when it's 75 outside.
3. 14 Points is Still a Shitload to Cover in the NFL -- This is professional football. I have been a little misled so far this season by the dominance of favorites. Easy covers by the Eagles and the Giants last week despite 15- and 16- point spreads capped a 5-week run where the favorites cleaned house on Vegas. This week saw three 14-point spreads for the Eagles, Packers, and Steelers (who went 1-2) and three 10-point spreads for the Jaguars, Jets, and Patriots (who went 1-2). In college, 10- and 14- point spreads for big favorites are easily covered. For one, there is an inherent different in competition. Power programs get to select the cream of the crop. They spend millions of dollars on the best players, the best technology, and the best equipment (wait did I say "best players"--I didn't mean that, NCAA, I promise). There aren't practice squad players on the Steelers who could whoop the pants off of the Panthers' regulars. If there were, they'd be on another team, starting and getting paid for it. And on top of it, college has style points. Winning big is a factor. In the NFL, a team is just as happy with a 1 point win as it is a 30 point one. If anything, I think coaches would prefer the former, as it would keep the team more focused, and hard-earned wins are more valuable than cakewalks. As the Browns showed, even teams that have no business being in the stadium can still cover big spreads, as opposing defenses don't really care about being more than two scores up as the clock expires. Even for games that you know in your heart are locks, spreads bigger than 7 get dicey.
4. Never Underestimate a Cross Country Trip -- Being professional athletes, who get paid millions of dollars to do this dozens of times a year, you would think traveling a couple thousand miles to play a game wouldn't have much an effect. Well, you would also think that people would understand that buying handguns almost exclusively leads to tragedy and almost never to heroism. But apparently they keep selling them, and teams keep putting up stinkers after traveling cross country. Whatever preconceived notions I have about that trip, I must put them aside and realize the empirical evidence that shows it takes a toll on players' bodies and minds. The Jaguars squeaked by the Rams in a sad performance just a week after traveling to Seattle and getting their asses handed to them. The Eagles got stomped on by the Raiders after traveling from Philly to Oakland. As with all "rules", this one doesn't hold for every example, and should be taken on a case by case basis, but I think there's enough evidence to suggest it plays a factor.
5. It's Not Wrong to Bet on Your Rooting Interest -- Despite the public perception, I don't really think it's that wrong to bet on your rooting interest. I think most of the time, the problem is, you let your biases blind you, and you fail to see the potential traps of the game. I still believe the Eagles were a good bet this weekend, and even though it's likely I was biased towards them from the start, I don't think it was wrong to bet on them. The Raiders had shown absolutely no ability to play offense, they were without Darren McFadden, they were without Nnamdi Asomugha, and the Eagles seemed to be clicking with McNabb back at the helm. Maybe 14 points was strong for them, but I still would have been far more confident betting the Eagles than Oakland in this game. And taking adjusted lines on the Birds in this game was even more of a lock. This was just an NFL upset, plain and simple, one team played better than it had before, one team played worse than it had before. And how the game affected me is totally separate from how I feel about betting it. Most people say, "You don't want to feel even worse if they lose." I felt like crap after the Eagles lost, but not because I made a mistake gambling. I still thought it was the right play from my perspective, but being a fan it hurt to see the team execute so poorly and come home with a loss to an inferior opponent.
The important thing to remember is that Sunday is only six days away. And I'm sure I'll get right back up on that pony again, hopefully with better results.
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