#071 - Midseason Futures Update

Since we've reached the midway point (or roughly midway point) of the NFL Season, I thought it'd be useful to go through my NFL season-long futures bets and see where I stand. Calculate how much money I project to lose (or, you know, in a perfect world, win).

PLAYER BETS

-Tony Gonzalez Rec TDs +0.5 vs Antonio Gates Rec TDs: 12.00 to win 13.8

They were paying me juice for this, in addition to the half-score. Seemed like at the very least a 50-50 proposition.

Currently: Gonzalez 4, Gates 2
Odds: 60%; Value: 15.48

-Wes Welker Rec Yds +78.5 vs Calvin Johnson Rec Yds: 12.00 to win 13.2

Again, I was getting juice. I figured they were both going to put up lots of yards, but Stafford was due for a down year. Also, I can't help but admit I was swayed a bit by the Madden curse.

Currently: Welker 736, Johnson 638 (Welker has played 1 more game)
Odds: Conservatively, we'll call it 45%; Value: 11.34

-Greg Jennings Rec TDs +0.5 vs Dwayne Bowe Rec TDs: 12.00 to win 8.89

I paid a lot of juice for this, which looks bad now, considering all the injuries that have piled up for Jennings. He did score once this year in only about a game and a half. But Bowe has been seemingly the only guy to reach the end zone for KC, doing it in garbage time a bunch.

Currently: Jennings 1, Bowe 3
Odds: Per injuries, 10%; Value: 2.09

-Devin Hester Ret TDs vs Patrick Peterson Ret TDs: 12.00 to win 8.89

Hester returns punts and kicks, Peterson does not. And considering Peterson's importance on defense, and the addition of Brandon Marshall to the Bears, I figured Hester'd be all over the return game this year. Yet to find the seam, but all he needs is 1.

Currently: Hester 0, Peterson 0
Odds: 55%; Value: 11.49

-Victor Cruz Rec TDs vs Dez Bryant Rec TDs: 15.00 for 13.04

Cruz is a better receiver in a better offense. Seemed to be a no-brainer, especially consdering Bryant's attitude / off-the-field issues.

Currently: Cruz 7, Bryant 2
Odds: 75%; Value: 21.03

-Tom Brady Pass TDs +1.5 vs Matthew Stafford Pass TDs: 15.00 for 13.04

Getting points on Brady. No way Stafford duplicates last season.

Currently: Brady 16, Stafford 8 (Brady has played 1 more game)
Odds: 65%; Value: 18.23

-Eric Weddle's INTs vs Charles Woodson's INTs or Kyle Arrington's INTs: 10.00 for 16.00

Well, at this point, Weddle is the only guy actually playing for his team. I'd say that's a good sign.

Currently: Weddle 2, Woodson 1, Arrington 0
Odds: 35%, Value: 9.10

TOTAL FOR SECTION: 88.00 Out, Projected 88.75 In

OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

-Robert Griffin III: 10.00 for 60.00 (Odds: 40%; Value: 28.00)
-Trent Richardson: 6.00 for 60.00 (Odds: 25%; Value: 16.50)
-Andrew Luck: 24.00 for 30.00 (Odds: 30%; Value: 16.20)

I originally had bet RG3, but then I realized I could essentially lock in profit if any one of the three won (which seems like a foregone conclusion at this point), so I added the other two. I'm still hoping for Griffin, as that results in the biggest net gain, but the other two are acceptable as well.

TOTAL FOR SECTION: 40.00 Out, Projected 60.70 In

TEAM BETS

-San Diego Chargers AFC West Champs: 20.00 for 37.00

Screw the Chargers. I somehow get sucked into them every year. The collapse against New Orleans was one thing. The collapse against Denver was near inconceivable. But then to go on the road and lose at Cleveland just ended any and all relationship I have with that team. The amount of money I've lost on them in the last four weeks is atrocious. It looks like another 20 down the drain here.

Currently: 3-4, behind the Broncos 4-3
Odds: 20%; Value: 11.40

-New York Giants NFC East Champs: 20.00 for 40.00 (Odds: 55%; Value: 33.00)
-Philadelphia Eagles NFC East Champs: 43.00 for 67.25 (Odds: 10%; Value: 11.03)

Originally had the Giants, then wanted to hedge my bets a little with value on the Eagles after they beat New York. Hedged too much, I think. Wish I could sniff +100 on NYG anywhere, let alone +200.

-Seattle Seahawks NFC West Champs: 10.00 for 40.00

If they had managed to pull out that win at San Fran last week, this is a whole new ballgame. Then, they lost a late lead against Detroit, and now it's looking much less likely.

Currently: 4-4, behind the 49ers 6-2
Odds: 5%; Value: 2.50

-Pittsburgh Steelers AFC North Champs: 15.00 for 18.75

This one started to look really bad, but has since come back to life. The Ravens are reeling without Webb and Lewis. And the Steelers are finally putting it together, on the strength of their passing game. People automatically associate Pittsburgh with defense, but theirs is not very good right now. Same goes for Baltimore.

Currently: 4-3, behind the Ravens 5-2
Odds: 20%; Value: 6.75

-Atlanta Falcons NFC South Champs: 25.00 for 13.89

Made this after they started 2-0 or 3-0. Now, it's like stealing. Wish I had bet 250.

Currently: 7-0, ahead of the Bucs 3-4
Odds: 85%; Value: 33.06

-Denver Broncos Under 8.5 Wins: 15.00 for 20.25

Well, they were giving a lot of juice, and I wasn't convinced that this team was going to be ready to win 9 games. Fast forward 8 weeks, and I'm pretty convinced. The comeback win against San Diego has taken what could have been a really good season for me and turned it into pure mediocrity. Good call, me.

Currently: 4-3
Odds: 15%; Value: 5.29

-Jacksonville Jaguars Under 4.5 Wins: 20.00 for 37.00

I went down a couple notches here just to get the higher odds on this. I think they were at 5.5 when I made the bet. Didn't believe in them at all. So far, looking like my best one.

Currently: 1-6
Odds: 25%; Value: 14.25

-Arizona Cardinals Under 6.5 Wins: 20.00 for 17.39

When they were 4-0, this looked silly. Now they're 4-4, and I'm starting to regain hope. They just don't look very good. And while the defense is solid, they're not as good as they were to start the season, and not good enough to carry them again. They beat New England and dismantled Philly. Wow.

Currently: 4-4
Odds: 15%; Value: 5.61

TOTAL FOR SECTION: 188.00 Out, Projected 122.88 In

OTHER

-Will Rex Ryan still be coaching the Jets in Week 17: YES: 25.00 for 25.00

Bill Barnwell gave me the heads up to this. I figured it was a pretty good value. They'd have to collapse to get him fired midseason. They started to play better against Houston, Indy, and New England. But that game this week against Miami really changed my mind. Went from 65% to 40%.

Currently: 3-5 Record, last in AFC East
Odds: 40%; Value: 20.00

-AFC North will win the Super Bowl: 10.00 for 72.50

Going into the season, I figured they had one legit team (Baltimore) and one semi-legit team (Pittsburgh). Nowadays, it looks more like two semi-legit teams. Oh well, still not bad.

Odds: 10%; Value: 8.25

TOTAL FOR SECTION: 35.00 Out, Projected 28.25 In


TOTAL SO FAR:

Out: 351.00
Projected Return: 300.58
Projected Loss: -50.42

Umm... not good.


*UPDATE 11/05: Previously listed "NFC North" when I meant "AFC North". Thanks, JRK.