#057 - The Vince Young Problem

I want to clarify a couple of things up front:

1) I'm not black. (Or Asian or Latin or Native American or biracial or Jewish or Muslim or any of the many, many cultural backgrounds that are prejudiced against much more than white Christian Americans.)

2) I believe there are PLENTY of people that still exist in this world and, yes, in this country, that have racist tendencies, or are just blatantly bigoted. It's a fact, and I wish it wasn't, but god only knows when that fact is going to change. I just hope the number decreases steadily through time.

3) I do not believe I know what it feels like to be prejudiced against because of my ethnicity. And I'm not claiming to.

I just got done reading an article on ESPN.com from Jemele Hill, who I think is a good writer, not that I agree with 100% of the things she says, but she usually comes up with pretty solid topics, albeit sometimes controversially. Here's a link to the article in question. (Likewise, here's a column by Jason Whitlock about LeBron playing the race card.)(And here is an article written by a blogger who seems to appropriately balance the argument in a thoughtful way.) Hill seems to sort of take this waffling stance on the treatment of black quarterbacks--that yes, the ones in question (Donovan McNabb, Jason Campbell, Vince Young) have at times underperformed, most notably Young, but that also their treatment has not been 100% on the up-and-up, going so far as to say that Jeff Fisher doesn't trust VY, and his mistrust has fed into a sour environment for the two.

On top of that, I read a comment in a chat with Bill Simmons yesterday from someone saying: "Funny how you'll blame Vince Young for the issues in Nashville but not acknowledge his career success and Jeff Fisher's lack of it..." What? Jeff Fisher's lack of career success? First of all, he's a head coach in the NFL, and he's the longest-tenured one at that. Something about that SCREAMS "career success" to me. Secondly, he's won 25 more games as a head coach than he's lost. Third, if you think Vince Young has succeeded in the NFL without help from his HEAD COACH, you're just insane. And as far as Fisher's mistrust of Young leading to the sour environment goes, that's a chicken-and-egg argument basically claiming that the chicken made the egg and it's a done deal. I'm a big sports fan. I read stuff from all over, it doesn't have to be my home team. And I read stuff from all sorts of sources--journalists, bloggers, stat people, beat reporters, former players. The bottom line on Vince Young seems to be that he's a pretty talented guy who just doesn't seem to have "gotten it" yet in the NFL. It could be that he was just so dominant in college that he never developed the proper work ethic. He could roll out there on the field and simply walk through teams (as he did on the BCS-winning touchdown run). To make it in the NFL, you need a little bit more than that. Donovan McNabb "got it" and I don't think you'll read anything from anyone claiming otherwise. He works his ass off, he studies up, he showed Michael Vick the difference between putting up stats and winning games (and look how Vick has taken that to heart). He's gotten it for sure--and maybe part of that is because he was criticized so early. Eagles fans wanted Ricky Williams (they were unaware of how insane he was) but Andy Reid went with McNabb because he thought it was an opportunity they couldn't pass up. McNabb came from Syracuse and knew he'd have to prove himself. Young came from Texas and a national championship and thought, "What the heck--I thought I already proved myself?" Some people are just wired differently.

The criticisms on the field that I've seen time and time again of Young don't seem that insane to me. He struggles with accuracy and making quick decisions (these were, for a long time, criticisms of Eli Manning), but he's a hell of a downfield passer and throws a pretty deep ball on top of all the playmaking ability with his legs. I don't know how to say it other than those comments seem pretty dead-on. Now, the flip side of it is, he's had a tough time dealing with team management issues. He doesn't seem to be able to handle getting benched, apparently he's missed a bunch of team meetings, and the bottom line is that you can't really have that from your quarterback--or any of the key players on the team. He disrespected Fisher to his face, perhaps as a result of his feeling that Fisher must have a grudge against him dating back to last season, when Fisher stuck with Kerry Collins through an 0-6 start. Here's a thought: YOU bench your starting quarterback after a 13-3 season. Go ahead, see how easy it is. Was six games too many? Should Fisher have pulled the plug sooner? (By the way, here's the six teams Collins lost to in that stretch: @ Pittsburgh, Houston, @ NY Jets, @ Jacksonville, Indianapolis, @ New England.) If Fisher has a mistrust of Young, perhaps it's because of Young. Not because of his skin color. To make the claim that Fisher doesn't trust a black quarterback is to EGREGIOUSLY overlook the fact that Fisher tabbed Steve McNair as his starting quarterback for the better part of TEN SEASONS, and McNair to this day is the best Titan in team history (Tennessee, not Houston). It seems irresponsible, or lazy, to suggest that the issues in the Titans' clubhouse are related to race. At least, if that were the case, it would mean that Fisher is weirdly selective about who he is racially biased against, choosing only those who seem to openly disrespect him.

I'm not going to sit here and say that there aren't people out there who probably don't trust Young as a quarterback because he's black. It's a shitty reality of this world. But what I am thinking is that those people are fans (or "fans") in some regard, onlookers, and not the men pulling the strings behind the curtain. Could it be writers? Perhaps. But from what I've seen, analysts' critiques of Vince have been pretty fair. He's found himself on his fair share of Greatest College Players Ever lists, and I think few people doubt that his Rose Bowl game against USC ranks as one of the all-time top performances in the sport. But his wild success in college masked a problem that seems to be coming out in the pros--he can't handle failure very well. And I mean even small failures, in game, not being able to stand boos, or being injured and missing games. Somehow, critics have turned Fisher's action of not sending Young back into the game into him "not trusting" Young. "If Brett Favre was hurt like that, would a coach stop him from going back in?" Probably not. But Brett Favre is a hall of fame quarterback who has played hurt many, many times and played successfully. Vince Young, in his short career, has occasionally had injuries that linger and recur. If Fisher sends him back out there and Vince is injured more severely on the next play, wouldn't that suggest that Fisher "doesn't care what happens to him"? It seems like he's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. Apparently trying to protect your franchise quarterback from injury gets you nowhere these days.

I've been trying to think of ways to address the Jason Campbell problem this whole time, but I don't think I can come up with anything. Campbell has been a solid quarterback in the NFL. Solid, but unspectacular. The Redskins decided they didn't want him anymore, so they dealt him. Certainly it had everything to do with race, since they replaced him with--oh, that's right, a black quarterback. And the Raiders are probably biased against Campbell too, since they've never--oh, that's right, they tried every way they could to get JaMarcus Russell to succeed after drafting him #1 overall. The Raiders never bet the house on Campbell. They traded for him because it was an opportunity to acquire a solid NFL quarterback at a reasonable price, and they certainly didn't have their mind made up as to who would be starting for them. They don't have the luxury of a Peyton Manning or even a Sam Bradford--someone who they know they're going to stick with. But I've paid a decent amount of attention to this team for the last few years, and in my honest opinion, Bruce Gradkowski is the best quarterback they have, and have had for the last couple seasons. He's not awesome, but I think he's fiery and aggressive and makes plays. He's probably not that much better than Campbell, but right now this team has a poor pass offense, period, regardless of who is behind center.

And it's no secret that I love McNabb. I've written about it extensively, and I will openly admit it to anyone. He was my favorite player during his whole run as an Eagle, and honestly, I probably wouldn't BE an Eagles fan if it weren't for him. I don't understand Mike Shanahan's move at the end of the Lions game. Simply put. It didn't make sense, I was angry, I thought he took a winnable game and threw it in the garbage, and followed up by making a bunch of weird excuses that didn't make sense. But what does that have to do with him not liking him for his race? There's no way that Shanahan simply mistrusts Donovan as a black quarterback. Rick Reilly, who has recently written a lot of garbage, pointed out a lot of counter-arguments in a recent column.

Surely, McNabb was at the center of the Rush Limbaugh firestorm. But Rush is an idiot and spouts a lot of baloney and white people will tell you that. He likes being edgy. McNabb handled the ordeal with a lot of class. And, just like Young, McNabb definitely has his doubters out there, and some of them probably simply doubt him because of his race. But what position of power are those people in? Are they running the team? Are they writing the national columns? Are they on television in front of millions? I don't believe they are. ESPN saw to it that Limbaugh wasn't anymore. People out there are going to hate other people for whatever reason they want. You can't stop that from happening. Does that mean that there's a culture brewing in the NFL that signals mistrust of black quarterbacks? I don't think so. Wins bring dollars, and dollars make owners happy. Happy owners make happy coaches and happy players. That's the bottom line, literally, and I think you can see that from the Vick story that's been going on. As much as people hated him for what he did and as scummy a guy he was, he's winning games and lighting the field up, and the team has to stick with him--AND fans are loving it. McNabb brought a lot of wins to Philadelphia and a lot of people love him for it. But he also never brought that ONE particular win and a lot of people are upset about it. What are you going to do? Remember when Peyton Manning was the guy who could never win "the big one" before he finally did? It happens. Nobody doubted that Peyton was a good quarterback. He just was the guy you'd always bet against in the playoffs. The Eagles got rid of them because of a certain team philosophy that suggests not holding onto assets until they're worthless. It sucks. Did McNabb have more productivity in him? For sure. But so did Brian Dawkins when he was let go. So did Brian Westbrook. So did Sheldon Brown. The management of the team just has a philosophy to keep the wheels churning and bring in new talent. If it didn't work, they wouldn't do it. Now the Eagles are 7-3 and everyone's favorite to win the NFC. You can argue that it was rude of them to trade McNabb when they did, but you can't argue that they didn't have winning football games at the top of their priorities when they did. Fans may delude themselves into thinking that winning one season is all that matters. They'd trade in ten winning seasons for one Super Bowl and nine winless years. But that's just what I said--delusion. It's not good business, it's not good management, it's not good for team spirit. You try to win as many games for as long a time as you can. Andy Reid decided it was time to cut ties with Donovan, when he could still get decent value for him, and Reid did him a favor by trading him to a team with money that was still capable of competing.

As much as I love McNabb, the comments that he made that Hill attributes to him in her article seem a little misguided. For one, they were made in 2007, which is a weirdly long time ago when referencing players like Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer. In 2007, Carson Palmer was a very promising young quarterback with a couple excellent seasons under his belt and the Bengals seemed to be turning this around. If he wasn't criticized at that time, it was because the Bengals had been so purely awful for so long that to see them succeed was joyous for everyone involved. And I once again don't understand the short term memory that people have regarding Manning. He was trounced routinely for not being able to win the big one, despite being statistically a tremendous quarterback and winning a lot of games in the regular season. Then he finally won one, and after that point, has continued to lead winning seasons and play lights-out. If he is criticized rarely, it is because he is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. But that doesn't mean he was never criticized.

Finally, towards the end of the article, Hill points out that a lot of people suggested Vick move to another position other than quarterback when he returned from prison. Certainly this was because he was a black quarterback, and not because he missed TWO YEARS in prison. The fact that Vick even returned to football at all was a nod to his superior athletic talents. People suggested that he come back in a different role because he threw away his career by being a criminal, because few teams were knocking down his door to come back and be a starting quarterback (which he wanted), and because they thought he could be useful immediately by playing a wildcat or splitback. Suggesting that those comments were motivated by race would be to act blind to the facts: he missed a huge portion of time in prison, potentially irreversibly affecting his timing and rhythm; teams in the league had moved on and worked with new quarterbacks; he was an amazingly effective runner in Atlanta but not as effective passing; making him your starting quarterback would have been handing the keys to someone fresh off of a federal felony conviction who was teetering on the edge of Roger Goodell's death list. It was a very specific case, one that most analysts had absolutely no history dealing with. So they attacked it specifically. And if simply suggesting he moves positions is a strictly "black quaterback" thing, then I would present to you the following: Tim Tebow, Matt Jones, Julian Edelman, Scott Frost, Eric Crouch. Quarterbacks are suggested to change positions all the time, based on their skill sets. It's not restricted to black quarterbacks only.

I know that there is a lot of pressure on black quarterbacks to succeed. But there's a lot of pressure on everyone in the NFL to succeed--white, black, everything in between. And I acknowledge that, as they say, "haters gonna hate," but to take these issues that are popping up with some of the NFL's talent and suggest that they are racially motivated seems a little bit narrow-sighted to me. Anyone associated with the NFL knows that it's impossible to overstate the contributions made by black players--at all positions.

#056 - Day of the Dead: AFC Edition

So, in regards to the previous post, I just want to clarify that the classifications I listed aren't necessarily "Alive or Dead in the Playoff Race". Of course, especially in a playoff race like the NFC's (notably the NFC West), teams are still going to be technically alive even with poor records, like Minnesota at 2-5 or San Francisco at 2-6. What I mean from "Alive, Dead, or In Limbo" is the play of the teams. What do they give you on a week to week basis? Do they have any hope at turning their season around? Some teams I just feel are more of a threat any given week (the Rams) than others (the Seahawks).

So let's continue, this time with the AFC:

VIVO

New England Patriots -- Well, yeah, it's simple, they have the best record in football. Period. Amazingly, after years and years of teams taking undefeated streaks into late November, including two last year, this year we have NONE, and there's only even ONE team with a single loss, thanks to the Saints and Packers last week. This Patriots team is one of the biggest smoke and mirror jobs Belichick has ever pulled off. I mean where is their headlining talent? Brady, Welker, Mayo, ...? They have continued to be "Team Turnover"--as in player turnover, not keeping the old vets around any longer than they need to, shipping them off for draft picks before they bust out. And it's clearly working. If you take away a second half offensive meltdown in New York, they're undefeated, and against some stiff competition. How can they perform the remainder of the season? Well, I think they're a good regular season team (note: that's a backhanded compliment, they allow 55 more yards per game than they produce). So looking at their schedule, I'll give them 12-4. Prediction: 12-4, AFC East title.

New York Jets -- Everybody's bandwagon favorite. Unfortunately, they laid a stinker against the Packers, and after the bye week--which makes me think Rex Ryan isn't going to turn into one of those Bill Belichick / Andy Reid "Unbeatable After the Bye" types. They have offensive problems, for sure. And if anyone ever slowed down Tomlinson, watch out. But the biggest surprise is the pass defense. They loaded up their guns with two more clips--Cromartie and first round pick Kyle Wilson--but have not improved against the pass at all, giving up 60 more yards in the air per game than last year and already allowing more touchdowns (10 to 8). They improved against the run, however, a filthy-low 2 touchdowns the whole season. It just makes you feel sort of sorry for the defense, that they could hold the Packers out of the end zone and yet still come away with a loss. Luckily, they have games against Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Buffalo still remaining. Prediction: 11-5, Wild Card.

Miami Dolphins -- Look, they've lost to the Patriots, Jets, and Steelers (on a bogus call that I'm still mad about). And now they have to play the Ravens this week. Tough schedule much? So having a 4-3 record is nothing to sneeze at. There are very very few teams who could play those opponents as well as road games in Green Bay (OT Win), Cincinnati (Win), and Minnesota (Win) and come out with the record they have. I like what they do. They play tough defense. Maybe they're not the shutdown team the Jets might be, but you don't get easy touchdowns against Miami, unless you're the Patriots and the entire special teams unit just falls apart. And they obviously play well on the road, an amazing 4-0 on the season. But things have to improve at home. And their stars (Brandon Marshall, Ronnie Brown, and Ricky Williams) have got to start playing better and earning their paychecks. The unheralded guys on the team can't keep holding them afloat. But if all you need is your big-name guys to step it up to go from dark horse to legitimate contender, I'd say you're doing something right. Prediction: 9-7.

Baltimore Ravens -- It upsets me that they lost that overtime game in New England, but the Ravens have already won two of the toughest road tests a team could face--at Pittsburgh and at the Jets. Now, their second half schedule doesn't get any easier for them, save matchups with the Panthers and Browns. But at the beginning of the season I liked them to be the best team in the league, and I still think they're very capable of that. They just need to run a lot of red zone offense with Flacco. I think he struggles. He's got a cannon arm and really likes to unfurl it, but his short-range touch leaves a bit to be desired (sounds like another #5 I'm familiar with). And I think it hurts them in the red zone. He's got a big target now in Anquan Boldin, who seems to be disappearing and reappearing throughout their games. He needs to show up on every play. Don't underestimate the importance of having Ed Reed back. This guy is a twice-in-a-lifetime type playmaker. Prediction: 11-5, in the hunt for the AFC North.

Pittsburgh Steelers -- I'm frustrated with the Steelers this year. I think they outperformed themselves with victories early in the season without Roethlisberger or Polamalu, and now they are left with a bunch of winnable games. But look at who they've beaten this year: Atlanta (in Pitt), Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Miami, Tennessee. Good, not great. They lost their two toughest tests, against Baltimore and New Orleans. I'd prefer to give them a few more games against top opponents before anointing them as many of the talking heads are wont to do. Prediction: 11-5, also in that same hunt.

Indianapolis Colts -- Look, this team has flaws. It's not alarming. It's the truth. They've been gashed by the run. They gave up tons of points to Houston and Jacksonville in losses. But let's be serious about something: there's no way in hell Peyton Manning doesn't win MVP this year. How about losing your budding receiver, Austin Collie? No big deal. What about Dallas Clark for the season? Eh, whatever. Bob Sanders? Melvin Bullitt? Joseph Addai? Donald Brown? How many huge injuries do the Colts have to endure before they're forced to play guys both ways? More than anybody else, this is a one-man team. It's kind of sad, but it's true. You take Peyton out of this lineup and they'd collapse faster than a Jenga tower. That's why he was named NFL Network's 8th best player OF ALL TIME. And that's also why they can take these beatings and keep on ticking, week in and week out. Prediction: 12-4, no road playoff games at 8-8 teams this year.

Tennesse Titans -- Talk about a team that's doing it with defense. Yeah, they're no Steelers or Jets, but here's a team that creates havoc when you play them. Turnovers, touchdowns, sacks, punt returns, the whole deal. They are making the most of their opportunities and are keeping the team ahead while the offense and Chris Johnson "struggle" (721 yards and 8 touchdowns is suddenly a bad season). I'm just worried that they've hit their high water mark. They're giving up more yards than they're producing, and have already created 19 turnovers. Plus they have four games against the Texans and Colts in the second half, as well as a matchup with the Ravens. And who knows what kind of impact Randy Moss will have on the team. I think he's best utilized as a decoy on this team, but you know he gets upset when he's used in that manner. Prediction: 9-7, unfortunate in this year's AFC.

Kansas City Chiefs -- What a turnaround by these guys. I really don't even like to admit it, considering I've been so down on them all year. I just didn't buy that they suddenly got it. But they have it, alright. Yeah, they haven't beaten a lot of good teams if you take away their opening week victory over the Chargers, but the good news for them is their schedule doesn't get that much tougher from here on out. No more games against the Colts, at least. I think they're primed for a bit of a fall-off, but you can't deny that they have a lot of young talent and are clearly the front runners in the AFC West right now. Prediction: 10-6, right in the thick of it.

Oakland Raiders -- Yeah I said it. Any time a team wins back to back games 92-17, you're going to get your props. And they're a hideous missed 32 yard field goal from Janikowski away from being 5-3 right now. And they have a 3-2 record in games when Darren McFadden has not been injured. I think their defense is better than people give them credit for, and if they can beat the Chiefs this weekend in what has become an enormous matchup for the two teams, watch out for them. Prediction: 7-9. Alright, so I'm not that in love with them. But I like what they're doing.

San Diego Chargers -- I begrudgingly put them here just because I think we've all seen this before from them. Struggle struggle struggle, then suddenly boom they explode and win a mediocre AFC West with a Week 17 blowout of Denver. This year though, they have a bit more competition. I think they'll come back from this because of their video games numbers on offense and defense--426 yards per game offensively, 260 yards per game allowed defensively. That's insane. Maybe if they stop getting punts blocked and stop laying the ball on the ground after receptions, they won't lose as many boneheaded games as they have. A road game at Indianapolis might be the only one standing in the way of a perfect rest of the season. Prediction: 9-7. Might be, I said.

PURGATORIO

Houston Texans -- They've been outscored this year by 27 points. They have the league's worst passing defense. They have to play the Chargers, Jets, Ravens, Eagles, and Titans (twice) before the season is out. Don't look now, but they could be headed for a real disappointment, especially after that huge opening week win against the Colts and a 4-2 start to the season. They need to do something defensively to prove that they have it together, and DeMeco Ryans's injury and Brian Cushing's sub-par post-steroids play are only making it worse. A round of applause for Arian Foster, he's been a wrecking ball this year. But the Texans should be learning by now that offense can't win you every game. Prediction: 8-8.

Cleveland Browns -- I hated this team more than any when the season started. Why? Because they were starting Jake Delhomme. I mean, seriously. Why would you do that? But you know what? They've played hard. And Seneca Wallace and Colt McCoy have done what Jake hasn't done for two years--given their team a chance to win. Nobody else in the league has played Kansas City, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay. All of those teams have 5 wins. That's insane. And they still have New England, the Jets, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh to go. Yeah, they're not going to win a lot of games. And yeah, their win over the Saints was a bit of a miracle. But I'm suddenly on the Browns bandwagon. Colt McCoy's my man. Prediction: 5-11. But things are looking up!

MUERTO

Buffalo Bills -- Sigh. I really wanted to give them a Purgatorio. I did. But I just can't. Not when they're 0-7 and hands down the worst team in the league. I love what ol' Seamus Fitzpatrick has done with this offense. This guy will take whatever shot you want to give him and pop right back up in your face. He's a little bull dog. And Roscoe Parrish and Steve Johnson have been revelations at receiver. They still have a few winnable games left on their schedule, so let's give three cheers for the Toronto Bills this weekend! Prediction: 2-14.

Cincinnati Bengals -- Whatever. They've been in every game they've played, and they have potential. But I used to like this team with Carson Palmer at the helm. Now they're just trotting out a retread team and focusing more on their reality shows. I think their window has passed. Prediction: 6-10.

Jacksonville Jaguars -- What makes me interested in this 4-4 team? That they've been outscored by 61 points this year? That they're 28th in passing defense and 22nd in rushing defense? That if you take away the Indy win, they've beaten teams that are 2-6, 0-7, and 1-6? I'm not buying what the Jaguars are selling. (And it seems nobody is, ZING! That's an empty stadium joke!) Prediction: 7-9. Or something.

Denver Broncos -- The fans want Tebow. Give them Tebow. They're getting outrushed by 87 yards per game. It can't hurt. Also, I'm running out of steam. Prediction: 5-11.

#055 - Day of the Dead: NFC Edition

Week 8 is over, which means we can officially start to eliminate some teams from contention--even if some of them are not mathematically eliminated. Coincidentally, November 2nd is Dia de los Muertos in Mexico, and also Election Day in the good old US and A. What does election day have to do with it? Well, just like in American politics, the race for the NFC West is between a bunch of good-for-nothings that just like to take your money without giving any real effort to earn it. And also, just like in American politics, SOMEBODY has to win. Gulp.

Let's break the NFC and AFC races into three categories: Vivo (Alive), Muerto (Dead), y Purgatorio (Somewhere in between--just like that hip new Matt Damon movie! Which looks totally weird and stuff!)

NFC

VIVO

The New York Football Giants -- everyone was proclaiming them to be the beast of the least after their second half dismantling of the Cowboys, which almost turned into an epic collapse against the Cowboys, which turned into a not-so-impressive victory over the Cowboys thanks to David Garrard and the Jags this weekend. But before we crown them champs, let's look at this: so far this year they've beaten the Cowboys (1-6), the Lions (2-5), the Texans (4-2), the Bears (in the Jay Cutler Walking Zombie game), and the Panthers (1-6). In between they got hammered by the Colts and the Titans. Luckily for them, they only play one game against the AFC the rest of the year (home vs. Jacksonville), but they do have to play four games against the Redskins and Eagles, which are always tough, and road dates in Seattle and Green Bay. They could go 5-4 the rest of the way to finish 10-6 and an almost stone cold lock on a playoff spot, but then again, we've seen them fall off the cliff before (5-0 to start last year, finished 8-8; 11-1 to start 2008, finished 12-4 and lost first playoff game). Prediction: 9-7, still good enough to secure a playoff spot.

Philadelphia Eagles -- Currently 4-3, they have a LOT of tough football games to play the rest of the year, including 2 with the Giants and next week's game against Indy. The good news is, if Michael Vick is on his game, they could beat anyone. The bad news is, sometimes Michael Vick has games where he couldn't hit the broad side of Terry Bradshaw's bald dome. We're young and pretty talented, and the thing that helps that combination is confidence. And right now, coming off of a brutal fourth quarter meltdown against the Titans, I'm worried about confidence. Nate Allen was playing like a star until Kenny Britt burned him deep, and now I'm concerned he's going to overcompensate against a Colts team that destroys defenses on underneath routes. Prediction: With Minnesota and Dallas looking like tumbleweed right now, it's not a stretch to finish the year 5-4 to go 9-7 and hopefully snag an NFC Wild Card.

Green Bay Packers -- At the beginning of the year, I thought they were the class of the NFC. Now, after taking some time to get their legs under them, they have big wins over Minnesota and the Jets in back to back weeks despite lackluster offensive performances. They have a swarming, aggressive defense, and that's a good basement to fall back on when Rodgers is off. Week 12 they play at Atlanta in what could go a long way to determining the NFC top seed, and then two weeks later they play at New England in another brutal matchup. But the rest of their games aren't so daunting. Prediction: 11-5, first round bye.

Atlanta Falcons -- At home, they are dominant. On the road, you have to question their poise. A lot of that falls down on Matt Ryan, and it's one of those things that hopefully he grows out of (you know, like Peyton Manning's "he can't win big games" tag). But if you start to peel away some of their key players, you are left with a team that has some gaping holes. Beyond Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, what do they have in the passing game? Beyond John Abraham and Curtis Lofton, how strong is their defense? You can attack them at their weaknesses and try to limit their strengths. But their schedule the rest of the way is pretty favorable. Prediction: 12-4, first round bye.

New Orleans Saints -- The defending champs are alive and kicking after a big win against Pittsburgh. They just have seemed out of sync all year and perhaps injuries to the offense and defensive secondary are to blame, but it could just be that they caught the league by storm last year and this year teams studied them up. You expose all of your secrets in a long playoff run and if teams were careful enough to watch they could have picked up on a lot of tendencies. That doesn't mean the Saints are an open book. They remain a tough team to beat, even with their slow start, and if they ever start clicking like they did last year, watch out. Like Atlanta, they have a pretty favorable schedule the rest of the way, if you take out back to back road games against the Falcons and Ravens weeks 15 and 16. Prediction: 10-6, wild card.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- You have to give them credit for the way they've played so far. They got steamrolled by the Steelers and the Saints, but have taken care of business in all their other games, including a wild comeback against St. Louis last week. Josh Freeman gives them a chance to win, and that's about as good as it gets with a second-year quarterback. Unfortunately for them, it looks like their team has a lot of young, unproven, low-ceiling talent that has to get by on playing hard and making the most of their opportunities. You might say, "Why is that bad?" It's only bad because instead of saying that they're primed to dominate in the coming seasons, I feel like it's more likely that they're primed to return to mediocrity, a bunch of 7 and 8 win seasons in the future. This year, though, they're a bit of a darling, especially in the NFC. Will it last? Unlikely. Tough games against Atlanta (twice), Baltimore, Washington, Detroit, San Fran, and New Orleans. Prediction: 7-9.

St. Louis -- They're tough. End of story. I'm not a Sam Bradford fan, I didn't get the hype surrounding him, I didn't see what separated him from Colt McCoy and all the other quarterbacks out there. But he's getting the job done. Steven Jackson remains the league's best underutilized running back. Teams crowd the box to stop him and Bradford has been making them pay, at least so far. But the offense is not the story with St. Louis. They're about average. Their defense this year has completely revamped--if you take out their blowout Detroit loss, they have not given up more than 17 points all season. Last year they allowed 25 points or more TEN TIMES. Kudos to Steve Spagnuolo. They have two games remaining against San Francisco, including next week, which will be season-defining games for both teams. Prediction: 8-8, your 2010 NFC West champs.

Detroit -- What? How could I put Detroit at 2-5 in the "Alive" category? Well, it's not always about record, people. This team plays HARD. They're a tough out. Just ask anyone. Ask St. Louis how it felt. Ask Philadelphia how scared out of their minds they were when Detroit got the ball back down 3. Ask Green Bay why they couldn't put them away. Ask Washington how it felt to blow their lead this week. Ask Chicago how it felt to escape with that heaven-sent victory. They have two advantages that no team can stop: Megatron and Suh. Calvin Johnson gives them the league's single scariest receiving threat. He can go get it in double-, triple-, quadruple-coverage. And Jahvid Best has been pretty explosive out of the backfield, at least posing a threat of the run game (despite limited results in recent weeks). And Suh is the real deal. I'm sure Gerald McCoy is fantastic, but looking back, I think you have to question the draft gurus who ranked McCoy ahead of him. 6.5 sacks on the year and a fumble recovery for a touchdown this past week. Those are Joey Porter numbers, but Suh is an interior lineman. Detroit has a tough, tough schedule the rest of the way (Green Bay, New England, the Jets, Miami), but that doesn't mean that any of those teams WANTS to play them. Prediction: 5-11. But it's not always about records.

PURGATORIO

Seattle Seahawks -- Yeah, they're leading their division. And yes, they are ahead of the Rams, who I just put in the "Vivo" category. But what's going on with this team? They lost on the road at the Rams 20-3 and on the road at Oakland 33-3. Seriously. And no, it's not 2002. These Rams and these Raiders were a combined 6-26 last year! While being outscored by 443 points! Seattle is a tough team at home, but is that going to really cut it? If you're just a cadaver on the road, you have to win EVERY home game to make it count. Can they win every home game? I don't think so, but they do have a chance to turn it around. Prediction: 7-9. Carroll is back for next year.

Chicago Bears -- Remember when they were lighting the world on fire? Well, even then I had serious doubts about the team. I just don't see how they are any different now from last year. Mike Martz is regarded in some austere manner in the NFL, but when was he last successful? Turmoil in San Fran. Turmoil in Detroit. He was the king of kings when he had Kurt Warner at the helm, but I think Kurt Warner proved in Arizona that it probably had a lot more to do with KURT WARNER than Mike Martz. Jay Cutler is super talented. I think. But you know how some guys just have to "get it"? He's not "getting it" right now. Instead, he's getting hit. Offensive line troubles are one of the worst omens a team can experience. Two of their wins came from Calvin Johnson's bizarre decision to smash the football into the turf and Green Bay's atrocious fumble in the fourth quarter. They're obviously reeling right now and I'm not positive they ever had it together to begin with. Now's their chance to prove me wrong. Prediction: 7-9.

Washington Redskins -- It breaks my heart to see all this controversy with Donovan McNabb. I mean what was Shanahan thinking pulling him with 2 minutes left down one score? It just doesn't make sense. They were 4-3 with a chance at 5-3, instead they have left themselves on the outside looking in. If you look at their games this year, they've played (almost) every game tough. Lost to Indy by 3, Houston by 3 (in that gut wrenching overtime game), Detroit thanks to a ridiculous series of plays, beat Philly in a close one, beat Green Bay in OT, beat Chicago thanks to Mr. DeAngelo Hall's 4 INTs. You can pretty much pencil them in for close, grind it out, field goal-laden games. Is that going to get the job done? Probably not. Their schedule from here on out doesn't get any easier. Prediction: 8-8. Better luck next year.

San Francisco -- Yeah, I'm stubbornly holding onto this. While it looks more and more like the Rams will wrest the NFC West championship, I still think San Francisco has a shot. They have executed worse than just about every team in the league this year, but are really only 2 1/2 games back right now to two teams who are playing above their heads. Mike Singletary is a good guy, and I hesitate to offend my few readers, but I just don't think he's right to be a head coach. And Alex Smith needs to get as far away from San Francisco as he can. I think sometimes it just works out for a quarterback. Look at Brady in New England. He just sort of fell into a position with a good team around him and he performed and gained the confidence of his coach. It worked out for him, and he's earned everything he's got. I'm not saying Alex Smith is Brady, but don't you think there's a reason this guy was at the top of everyone's draft board? He's played well at times, but has had more coaches than Elizabeth Taylor has had husbands, and in turn, he's got about as much confidence as any guy whose girlfriend used to date Shiancoe. I hate to say it, but maybe Troy Smith is the answer, at least for now. Who knows? They're going to lose at Green Bay and at San Diego, but their other games look like this: Arizona twice, Tampa Bay, St. Louis twice, and home versus Seattle. Who says they can't win those games? Prediction: 7-9. Good effort, boys.

MUERTO

Dallas Cowboys -- Don't tell me there's a way to recover from 1-6. There just isn't. Not the way they're playing. They had ONE opportunity salvage their season in a wide-open NFC race, at HOME against Jacksonville, a team with a pass defense about as good as yours or mine. As is typical of a team full of veterans, instead of bleeding their hearts out, they dropped a whole bunch of passes that led to interceptions and botched a bunch of other chances to come back--even when the Jags were almost BEGGING them to. Kitna's done a hell of a job for a guy who had to step in cold turkey. He's not clicking right now and I'm not sure he ever will, but Cowboy fans should consider that before they call for his head. I guess that's why Andy Reid says having two quarterbacks is a beautiful thing. Prediction: 5-11.

Arizona Cardinals -- Don't try to sell me on Derek Anderson or Max Hall. Hey, everyone is rooting for Max Hall. Come on, he's a nobody who came stumbling down some mountaintop into a starting quarterback role. But this offense is just miserable right now (more credence to the "yeah, it was Kurt Warner" theory). Could you imagine Terrell Owens in Fitzgerald's shoes? (Roll tape of 2009 Buffalo Bills.) A lot of talent on this team, and I really hope they don't blow it up. Donovan McNabb could very well be available after the season, and as I've said for months and months, I think this is the place he should have gone the whole time. Prediction: 6-10.

Minnesota Vikings -- Brett Favre. Brett Favre. Brett Favre, Brett Favre? Oh, Brett Favre. The Vikings have like 49 terrific players on their roster, and yet, this is where we're at? Why? For a few reasons. One, because Brad Childress has as much conviction as Brad Childress. Two, because Brett Favre turns every team he goes to into his own personal soap opera set, ignoring coaching advice, ignoring playcalling, ignoring preseason, ignoring the other team's cornerbacks, ignoring his own glaring health issues. Just hang it up right now, Brett. You're one of the legends, and I think fans across America would like to keep it that way. Honestly, take a time machine to 4 years ago, and tell sports fans, "Hey, in 2010, everyone is going to hate Tiger Woods, LeBron James, and Brett Favre." Some fans could buy it on the "they got too good it was no fun to cheer for them" angle. But to be where we are now? I just can't believe it. Mostly about Tiger, but Favre has just been on a constant legacy landslide for three years now, and it ain't getting any better. Prediction: 8-8. Yeah, not bad, but that's their best potential outcome.

Carolina Panthers -- I don't think I really even need to elucidate the reasons here. Prediction: 3-13. Instead, I leave you with a video of the best Panthers performance of the season. Cheers.