#071 - Midseason Futures Update

Since we've reached the midway point (or roughly midway point) of the NFL Season, I thought it'd be useful to go through my NFL season-long futures bets and see where I stand. Calculate how much money I project to lose (or, you know, in a perfect world, win).

PLAYER BETS

-Tony Gonzalez Rec TDs +0.5 vs Antonio Gates Rec TDs: 12.00 to win 13.8

They were paying me juice for this, in addition to the half-score. Seemed like at the very least a 50-50 proposition.

Currently: Gonzalez 4, Gates 2
Odds: 60%; Value: 15.48

-Wes Welker Rec Yds +78.5 vs Calvin Johnson Rec Yds: 12.00 to win 13.2

Again, I was getting juice. I figured they were both going to put up lots of yards, but Stafford was due for a down year. Also, I can't help but admit I was swayed a bit by the Madden curse.

Currently: Welker 736, Johnson 638 (Welker has played 1 more game)
Odds: Conservatively, we'll call it 45%; Value: 11.34

-Greg Jennings Rec TDs +0.5 vs Dwayne Bowe Rec TDs: 12.00 to win 8.89

I paid a lot of juice for this, which looks bad now, considering all the injuries that have piled up for Jennings. He did score once this year in only about a game and a half. But Bowe has been seemingly the only guy to reach the end zone for KC, doing it in garbage time a bunch.

Currently: Jennings 1, Bowe 3
Odds: Per injuries, 10%; Value: 2.09

-Devin Hester Ret TDs vs Patrick Peterson Ret TDs: 12.00 to win 8.89

Hester returns punts and kicks, Peterson does not. And considering Peterson's importance on defense, and the addition of Brandon Marshall to the Bears, I figured Hester'd be all over the return game this year. Yet to find the seam, but all he needs is 1.

Currently: Hester 0, Peterson 0
Odds: 55%; Value: 11.49

-Victor Cruz Rec TDs vs Dez Bryant Rec TDs: 15.00 for 13.04

Cruz is a better receiver in a better offense. Seemed to be a no-brainer, especially consdering Bryant's attitude / off-the-field issues.

Currently: Cruz 7, Bryant 2
Odds: 75%; Value: 21.03

-Tom Brady Pass TDs +1.5 vs Matthew Stafford Pass TDs: 15.00 for 13.04

Getting points on Brady. No way Stafford duplicates last season.

Currently: Brady 16, Stafford 8 (Brady has played 1 more game)
Odds: 65%; Value: 18.23

-Eric Weddle's INTs vs Charles Woodson's INTs or Kyle Arrington's INTs: 10.00 for 16.00

Well, at this point, Weddle is the only guy actually playing for his team. I'd say that's a good sign.

Currently: Weddle 2, Woodson 1, Arrington 0
Odds: 35%, Value: 9.10

TOTAL FOR SECTION: 88.00 Out, Projected 88.75 In

OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

-Robert Griffin III: 10.00 for 60.00 (Odds: 40%; Value: 28.00)
-Trent Richardson: 6.00 for 60.00 (Odds: 25%; Value: 16.50)
-Andrew Luck: 24.00 for 30.00 (Odds: 30%; Value: 16.20)

I originally had bet RG3, but then I realized I could essentially lock in profit if any one of the three won (which seems like a foregone conclusion at this point), so I added the other two. I'm still hoping for Griffin, as that results in the biggest net gain, but the other two are acceptable as well.

TOTAL FOR SECTION: 40.00 Out, Projected 60.70 In

TEAM BETS

-San Diego Chargers AFC West Champs: 20.00 for 37.00

Screw the Chargers. I somehow get sucked into them every year. The collapse against New Orleans was one thing. The collapse against Denver was near inconceivable. But then to go on the road and lose at Cleveland just ended any and all relationship I have with that team. The amount of money I've lost on them in the last four weeks is atrocious. It looks like another 20 down the drain here.

Currently: 3-4, behind the Broncos 4-3
Odds: 20%; Value: 11.40

-New York Giants NFC East Champs: 20.00 for 40.00 (Odds: 55%; Value: 33.00)
-Philadelphia Eagles NFC East Champs: 43.00 for 67.25 (Odds: 10%; Value: 11.03)

Originally had the Giants, then wanted to hedge my bets a little with value on the Eagles after they beat New York. Hedged too much, I think. Wish I could sniff +100 on NYG anywhere, let alone +200.

-Seattle Seahawks NFC West Champs: 10.00 for 40.00

If they had managed to pull out that win at San Fran last week, this is a whole new ballgame. Then, they lost a late lead against Detroit, and now it's looking much less likely.

Currently: 4-4, behind the 49ers 6-2
Odds: 5%; Value: 2.50

-Pittsburgh Steelers AFC North Champs: 15.00 for 18.75

This one started to look really bad, but has since come back to life. The Ravens are reeling without Webb and Lewis. And the Steelers are finally putting it together, on the strength of their passing game. People automatically associate Pittsburgh with defense, but theirs is not very good right now. Same goes for Baltimore.

Currently: 4-3, behind the Ravens 5-2
Odds: 20%; Value: 6.75

-Atlanta Falcons NFC South Champs: 25.00 for 13.89

Made this after they started 2-0 or 3-0. Now, it's like stealing. Wish I had bet 250.

Currently: 7-0, ahead of the Bucs 3-4
Odds: 85%; Value: 33.06

-Denver Broncos Under 8.5 Wins: 15.00 for 20.25

Well, they were giving a lot of juice, and I wasn't convinced that this team was going to be ready to win 9 games. Fast forward 8 weeks, and I'm pretty convinced. The comeback win against San Diego has taken what could have been a really good season for me and turned it into pure mediocrity. Good call, me.

Currently: 4-3
Odds: 15%; Value: 5.29

-Jacksonville Jaguars Under 4.5 Wins: 20.00 for 37.00

I went down a couple notches here just to get the higher odds on this. I think they were at 5.5 when I made the bet. Didn't believe in them at all. So far, looking like my best one.

Currently: 1-6
Odds: 25%; Value: 14.25

-Arizona Cardinals Under 6.5 Wins: 20.00 for 17.39

When they were 4-0, this looked silly. Now they're 4-4, and I'm starting to regain hope. They just don't look very good. And while the defense is solid, they're not as good as they were to start the season, and not good enough to carry them again. They beat New England and dismantled Philly. Wow.

Currently: 4-4
Odds: 15%; Value: 5.61

TOTAL FOR SECTION: 188.00 Out, Projected 122.88 In

OTHER

-Will Rex Ryan still be coaching the Jets in Week 17: YES: 25.00 for 25.00

Bill Barnwell gave me the heads up to this. I figured it was a pretty good value. They'd have to collapse to get him fired midseason. They started to play better against Houston, Indy, and New England. But that game this week against Miami really changed my mind. Went from 65% to 40%.

Currently: 3-5 Record, last in AFC East
Odds: 40%; Value: 20.00

-AFC North will win the Super Bowl: 10.00 for 72.50

Going into the season, I figured they had one legit team (Baltimore) and one semi-legit team (Pittsburgh). Nowadays, it looks more like two semi-legit teams. Oh well, still not bad.

Odds: 10%; Value: 8.25

TOTAL FOR SECTION: 35.00 Out, Projected 28.25 In


TOTAL SO FAR:

Out: 351.00
Projected Return: 300.58
Projected Loss: -50.42

Umm... not good.


*UPDATE 11/05: Previously listed "NFC North" when I meant "AFC North". Thanks, JRK.

#070 - Finals Recap: King's Ring, Miami, Miami, Miami

I will refrain from using a photo on this post. Sorry. I know the photos are why everyone comes here. And by everyone, I mean, someone? Just don't feel like sifting through internet images of all the red and white confetti pouring down on Dwyane Wade's head. Sure, I'm a sore loser.

Simply put, the Heat outplayed the Thunder, and they outplayed them in a way that left little doubt as to which team was ready to win the championship. Congrats to OKC for managing to swing Game 1, but they botched every key moment, every potential opportunity to win a second game, every high-pressure situation from there on out. And not in a finger-pointing kind of way. In just a general, hey guys, we didn't get it done way. Westbrook dribbling it off his foot. Harden missing a fast break layup. Sefolosha getting numerous three pointers blocked. Durant trying to go behind his back in traffic (twice). The no-call on LeBron at the end of Game 2. Each of the biggest moments of the series from Game 2 on ended up flowing the Heat's way. And they deserve all the credit, they did what they needed to, especially the big-time three point shooting of Battier, Chalmers and Miller, and the free-throw shooting of Wade and LeBron in the clutch.

There seems to be a big confusion between not wanting a team to win and being a hater. I've never been a LeBron hater, I'm not sour simply because he won and I want him to suffer endless defeats. I merely preferred the narrative of LeBron on the Cavs, building his own team, crafting his own legend. That's what I wanted to see. Not the Basketball SuperFriends. It has nothing to do with not respecting LeBron's game. I just didn't like his choices. For the last three years, there's never been a time for me when I was uncertain as to who the best player in the league was. It was always LeBron. Even if the Thunder had beaten the Heat, that wouldn't have proven Durant as better. He's not. That's not to say he's not better at certain things, because he is, and his pure scoring ability ranks up there with the greatest of all time. LeBron is a different beast all together. Defense, rebounding, fast break, passing. He performs at a world-class level in almost every facet of the game. There's never been a stronger finisher. End of story. All of the "If they win, what does it mean" conjecture is bullshit. It doesn't mean anything. He still would have been LeBron if they had lost. He still would have been the best in the game. Maybe it might have meant that he didn't play like it, but he had a really solid game in Game 1, and they lost that game. It just turned out throughout the series that he got the help he's been asking for.

The biggest thing I credit LeBron on is his acceptance of his faults. He won't publicly admit it, despite his recent confession that he felt he was immature during the loss to Dallas last year. His game is what speaks to his acquiescence. Instead of trying to be a jumpshooter, taking the opportunities given to him by very cautious defenders, he played aggressive. I don't think he's ever going to be an elite jumpshooter. He can get better, and he has, by he doesn't have the body dynamics of a Ray Allen or a Kevin Durant. His shooting form is too bulky and mechanical. He shoots best only when he has the space to set himself properly. That's okay, it's not the worst thing in the world to not be an elite shooter, but there was a long period of time where it seemed like that's what he wanted. This Finals proved that he understood his weaknesses, and he wouldn't succumb to them. Harden gave him jumper after jumper, "Please shoot it, please, please," and he wouldn't give in. It was easy to see that the biggest problem with the Heat version 1.0 was LeBron's and Wade's jumpshooting. Force them into those 19 footers, and you'll survive. Everyone acknowledged it, except for the players themselves. In the Finals, it seemed like they (at least LeBron) said, "Enough."

The Thunder will roll right along next year. I don't think they'll have any hiccups. They might look to add some depth -- I don't think Derek Fisher can be counted on for the same production next year, though it will be a huge bonus to get Eric Maynor back. They certainly might like a back to the basket scorer, if one exists out there, and it wouldn't kill them to flip Perkins. In my mind, one key player that they're missing is a Stephen Jackson type (or his less aggressive counterpart, Shane Battier). A decent three point shooting wing player who is strong enough to guard the best 2s and 3s in the game while Durant works on his strength and defensive footwork. I think that player would be great for them, because Sefolosha, while being a terrific defender, lacks threat offensively, and Harden in my eyes is a bit undersized. Early mock drafts have them taking Jeff Taylor from Vanderbilt, an excellent shooter for a 6'7" forward, and I think the fit would be great (though his defense is clearly well below what they'd look for). The worst reaction would be to panic and break up parts of the core. I have to give Russell Westbrook a tremendous amount of credit for what he did throughout these playoffs. Last year, I thought he might be the weak link, the problem player that could keep them from reaching their goal. This year, I know for certain that's not the case. Sure, he doesn't always make the extra pass, and his game management is questionable. But this guy gives his heart, night in and night out. When the rest of the team seemed resigned to fate late in Game 5, he was booking it up and down the court, losing by 25 points, taking it hard to the rack, trying to press ball handlers. In the span of a few weeks, I've really grown to love him. If it came down to Harden or Westbrook going forward, I think the Thunder will stick with Russ. He wants it, and he wants it with Durant, his big bro and number one fan. To me, there's a piece of Harden that screams, "I want my own team." He might get his wish.

I can't really explain why it is that I like this Thunder team -- I just do. I enjoyed Durant's performance his one year at Texas, and naturally, I was interested to see where he went in the pros. He and I are built similarly, and if there's anyone's game that I would want to have myself, it'd probably be his, but that certainly doesn't explain all of it. Once they moved and the prospect of a new team was out there, I paid more attention. They had a solid core, young guys, likeable guys. Westbrook was a pinball, Durant was the anchor. Keeping it steady. I was a fan of Harden at Arizona State (at least, until he laid a massive egg in the NCAA Tournament) and it was nice to see him go to OKC in the draft. And Nick Collison has truly become one of my favorite players in the league. He accepts who is he, and doesn't try to do any more. That's admirable. I've felt an affinity for this team for a while, and I was really pumped to see them get to the Finals. Unfortunately, once they got there, they ran into a team that was playing better.

The one thing everyone can agree on from this playoffs is that the Heat did it, and they did it without controversy. I understand Rose and Howard were injured -- but given their teams' performances without them, I hardly think they would have factored enough to take out Miami. And OKC got the short end of the stick on many questionable calls, but in my eyes, I don't think they did enough otherwise to warrant that gripe. There's no fix, there's no barking about preferential treatment. LeBron James was the best player of the playoffs, is the best player in the game, and he got himself a championship, thanks to an extremely productive supporting cast.

Not liking a team is not the same as hating on them. Last year, there was an abundance of undue venom spewed LeBron's way for how he played in the Finals. He underperformed, they lost, I think he probably felt bad enough about that. I didn't want to see them win last year, and I was happy for Dirk when the Mavs got it. I didn't want to see them win this year, and I'm pretty bummed for Durant and the rest of the Thunder that they fell short. LeBron deciding to bail on the Cavs and trying to do it with Wade in Miami left a bad taste in my mouth. I felt like it robbed us of seeing a potential legend in the making in a place nobody expected; he had a chance to make Cleveland his own. It didn't change his skills as a player, I just didn't like it. But dislike is different from disrespect. The Heat played superbly in the Finals, and throughout most of the playoffs. They got what they deserved.

#069 - Finals Game 3: MIA 91, OKC 85

Sometimes, there isn't a ton of in-depth analysis to be made on a sporting event. Sometimes, there aren't hidden stats that help to explain the bigger picture. Sometimes, everything that you believe you're seeing is reflected in the outcome of the game.

Game 3 was one of those times.

The Heat didn't play that great. Their offense seemed simple: they made layups and dunks and free throws, but nothing else. So, their poorest possessions came when they dribbled and dribbled and then shot a jumper. Their defense defense was just about the same: when they guarded tight, the Thunder rarely scored, and they came up with a lot of takeaways. So, their poorest possessions came when they didn't get around screens or jogged back in transition. It was pretty easy to see, as you were watching the game, that this was a team that wasn't firing on all cylinders.

The good news for the Heat? The Thunder were firing on less. A lot was said about the Thunder finally playing a strong first half, not falling into a double digit deficit. They played good, not great, weathering an early onslaught of Heat layups and forcing them to shoot some jumpers late. Durant seemed to have it going when he got space (the space was easier to be found when it wasn't LeBron guarding him) but nobody else was really playing well offensively.

It was the first time, maybe all playoffs, that I could truly say the Thunder under-performed. And it's a shame, because the game was there for the taking. They built a 10-point lead off of Derek Fisher's absurd three pointer-and-one play in the third quarter, you know, the one right after Durant got his fourth foul and went to the bench. Ten points! On the road! In Miami! And then after squandering that with an offensively futile lineup (Harden, Cook, Sefolosha, Collison, Fisher ... seriously, Brooks?) they managed to cut it back to 1 with 1:30 left following Sefolosha's steal and Westbrook's jumper. The game was there for the taking.

Unfortunately, they didn't take it.

The last 1:30 of the game highlighted all the problems for the Thunder that the previous three plays had tried to erase: they fouled the Heat, often times far from the basket, the Heat nailed (almost) all of their foul shots, Westbrook missed a wide open three pointer, Sefolosha threw away an inbound pass, and Durant failed to establish himself in a good position to catch the ball and get a shot off. You might expect to see a similar sequence in a mid-February game against a lesser opponent, but in the Finals, you can't survive when you play like that in the most crucial 1:30 of the season.

That being said, I believe there are some positives that the Thunder can potentially take advantage of going into Game 4. It's up to them, however.

One: when Durant is trying to get the ball when guarded by James in the fourth quarter, it seems like he struggles mightily when trying to post him up and play back to the basket. This is not a surprise. LeBron James is close to the strongest player in the league, and in this series, is certainly the strongest player on the court. He has regularly pushed Kendrick Perkins out of the paint without much difficulty. In my estimation, Durant has fared better against LeBron when he has the ball already in his hands and is facing him. What does this mean going forward? Honestly, start watching some tapes of Allen Iverson. Far too often, the Thunder offense consists of Westbrook dribbling out top while waiting for Durant to position himself at the elbow for an entry lob, typically when they run a screen play to switch Durant onto Westbrook's defender, or when running Durant around a pindown screen set by Sefolosha. All season, this has worked fine, and you don't like to change the strategies that got you to the Finals once you're there. But they didn't play the Heat all season. When you stick out your butt and start backing into a defender, you're inviting contact. The refs will allow the defender more freedom to push you back, knowing that it was because you initiated. If you catch a ball out top in space and face a defender, any contact from that point is likely going to be a foul (thanks to the rules instituted by the NBA a few years ago to re-ignite scoring). Since fouling out against Boston, I believe LeBron James has shown an aversion to fouling. He feels that he's too important to the team (and he's right). Additionally, he doesn't see the benefit to fouling Durant, a good free throw shooter. I'm not a professional coach, and I don't have the experience these guys have, but from watching the games, I think you HAVE to start considering running Durant off screens or finding some way for him to catch the ball with space. If he adds 25 pounds down the road, then he can start making more plays with his body.

Two: John Hollinger, finally, thankfully, mercifully posted an article on his blog that breaks down the effectiveness of the Thunder's small-ball (KD at the 4, three guards) lineup using each of their three big men (Perkins, Collison, Ibaka). The article is here: PER Diem Blog. (Note: it's an Insider, so if you're not an Insider, I apologize.) The summary? Perkins played a bunch of minutes with the small ball lineup in Game 3, and was not effective. Collison, likewise, wasn't either (though he gets a pass in my book for playing with the small lineup sans Durant and Westbrook, as mentioned above). Ibaka only got a few seconds. So Hollinger went through the stats of the season, and found all the scenarios where Perkins, Collison, and Ibaka played with the small ball lineup. The results? Perkins was +5.0 per 48 minutes regular season, +5.3 playoffs. Collison was +20.3 regular season, +13.1 playoffs. Ibaka was +19.1 regular season, +19.7 playoffs. Yes, +5.0 is good enough to win games. But the reality is, they're staring at a dominant lineup, and not using it. Ibaka sat the entire fourth quarter. Why? He's faster than Perkins, a better shooter, better finisher at the rim, and a better shot blocker. Perkins is rather plodding. He takes a long time to gather himself once he receives a pass, has far too often begun to dribble with the ball and subsequently turned it over (traveling, steal, offensive foul), and has negligible vertical lift. That's not his fault. He's a large man with a history of knee issues. I credit the effort that he gives night in and night out, but he spent the fourth quarter being responsible for Chris Bosh (Bosh entered with 9:40, Perkins entered with 5:58). From 5:58 on, Bosh had 4 rebounds, including 2 offensive. Perkins had 1. I know that's a small sample size, but Bosh is simply too quick and too long for Perkins. His more natural rival would be Ibaka. I spent the entire second half saying this, and felt vindicated when the numbers came out to support my hypothesis. Each of these games has come down to a tense fourth quarter, with the game able to be won by either side. Spoelstra has stuck with his guns, playing his five best players a majority of the late game minutes (James, Wade, Chalmers, Bosh, Battier). Scott Brooks, alternatively, has not--sticking instead with Perkins and Derek Fisher for major minutes. Though Fisher continues to make surprisingly big plays, I still want to see the lineup without him on the floor. I understand that substitutions throughout the game is about managing energy and matchups. But to me (and to about every coach from what I've seen) the last six or eight minutes of a close game are when you ignore a player's rest and concentrate on getting your best lineup on the floor. The Thunder's five best players are Ibaka, Durant, Westbrook, Harden (despite his performance so far) and Sefolosha. Hollinger, amazingly, indicates that they've used this lineup for a total of FOUR minutes this season, which is an appalling number. Certainly not all their games have been against opponents like the Heat or Spurs, who both use a combination of one big man and four guards/small forwards, but this lineup needs to find its way onto the court. I'd be willing to substitute Collison for Ibaka, even, as I think Collison has more polished defensive rotational skills and is a better screener offensively.


Miami Summary

Game MVPs:
-LeBron James (29 pts, 14 reb, 3 ast, clutch free throw shooting)
-Chris Bosh (poor shooting but always seemed to come up with the huge defensive plays and rebounds)

Unsustainable Positives:
-They made 16 more free throws than the Thunder. I don't expect this trend to continue.

Sustainable Positives:
-Bosh figuring out how to impact the game when he doesn't get touches. Here's a guy who I watched absolutely obliterate his team's chances against Chicago with a 1-for-18 shooting performance. Tonight he shot 3-for-12, but instead of forcing it, got key rebounds and blocks. This is a scary concept for OKC, who must counter with more of Ibaka on Bosh, who is simply too long and too quick for Perkins.
-LeBron James getting to the bucket. This is a running theme.

Unsustainable Negatives:
-Their outside shooting, while not good, is not as bad as this. They shot something like 12% from outside the paint.

Sustainable Negatives:
-OKC was letting Wade shoot jumpers. He was taking them, and missing them, for the most part. This is again a running theme.
-Chalmers and Norris Cole combined 1-for-10. Luckily this time, Chalmers only had one turnover.


Oklahoma City Summary

Game MVPs:
-Serge Ibaka, sadly (seemed to make a nice difference defensively when he was in, but only played 22 minutes)

Unsustainable Positives:
-Four point plays from Derek Fisher.
-Forced 9 Miami turnovers in the fourth quarter. This is insane, and they're probably the only team to ever do that and still lose.

Sustainable Positives:
-Durant had it going early, but that was about it. Need to find this more consistently throughout the game. Far too often, he's content with letting his teammates take over the offense, as he likes to encourage a supportive environment. When your back is against the ropes in the Finals, this needs to change.
-Until the fourth quarter, they were doing a great job keeping control of the ball. The shots weren't falling, but they were maintaining possession and not giving up easy ones.

Unsustainable Negatives:
-I want to say such poor free throw shooting, but I'm not positive. They haven't shot well yet this series.
-It's not likely Harden goes 2-for-10 again. Crossing my fingers.

Sustainable Negatives:
-They were significantly out rebounded, which is something that needs to change. With the small ball lineup, Harden, Westbrook, and Sefolosha have to make a serious effort to get on the glass.

#068 - Finals Game 1: OKC 105 MIA 94

The Thunder are getting a little too comfortable with this "comeback in the second half" business. After a subpar showing in the first half and some understandable first-Finals-game-ever jitters, they did what they've done the last three series and turned up the juice in the second, outscoring Miami 58-40 en route to capturing their first ever Finals victory.

Since I sat and watched the game tip to buzzer, I feel like there's not much to say that hasn't already been said, somewhere, by someone. The Heat jumped out on top by moving the ball (seriously, they were playing hot potato like you would have never thought from them) and drilling three pointer after three pointer early on. Chalmers got in the act, Battier was feeling the rejuvenation; it was kind of a scary thing to witness. As I told my buddy yesterday before the game, I am aware there's no way for the Thunder to truly stop LeBron. Only he can stop himself from getting what he wants, but if his teammates shoot 50%, it's going to be game over. In the first half, it seemed like his teammates were going substantially better than that, and it led to a 7 point halftime lead (which everyone agreed was far closer than it should have been).

In the third quarter, the Thunder got their act together. And it was a thing of beauty. I have to credit Brooks for recognizing what wasn't working early and fixing it late. He hasn't been the best at that, but two huge keys for OKC in the second half were Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison. Collison was ALWAYS around the screen when Miami tried to pick and roll. He always put himself between the ball and the basket, something which Perkins was struggling with in the first. And Sefolosha made Wade and LeBron work hard for every shot, every dribble. There's simply no way to quantify that contribution. His pokes led to numerous loose balls, forced shots as the shot clock was running out, and a serious amount of frustration for Wade.

Of course, the other part of the story is that Durant and Westbrook went into obliteration mode. Westbrook was an absolute demon for the Thunder, firing himself into the lane and dropping filthy lefty finger rolls all night. His springs are ridiculous. Whereas most human beings need to collect themselves to jump high into the air, Westbrook will be sprinting full speed and suddenly lift himself three feet off the ground. There's not a tougher guy to score on in transition than LeBron James, but even he looked like he was standing in cement a few times while Westbrook was gliding over him for two. I will still adamantly declare that any possession where he dribbles, dribbles, doesn't pass, and then pulls a jumpshot (especially three pointer) is a terrible possession, but you can't deny his impact on the game last night.

Then there's Durant. He scored a cool and quiet 36 points (read TrueHoop's take here). Seriously, if you watched the game, you would have likely thought Westbrook outscored him. Instead, Durant had 9 more points than Russell's 27. He forced one bad shot (the turn around jumper in the corner, I think he was trying to draw a foul) that made you think, "Ahh, too aggressive," but otherwise, his points just steadily piled up, playing the tortoise to Westbrook's hare, casually draining open jumpers and right handed scoop shots. Sometimes I think he might have a medical condition that makes him immune to high pressure situations. I'm not even joking about this. Anyone in their right mind would have panicked about being cut up by the Heat at the start of their first Finals game ever. LeBron James is rightly terrifying, and it didn't seem like he was doing his worst damage early on. But the Thunder went into halftime, feeling a little momentum from the end of the half, and they probably all looked towards Durant, team leader, team hitman, and saw how calm and unconcerned he was. It's exactly the attitude I expected every game from the San Antonio Spurs: "We don't care how much we're down, what the series score is, who is playing well for the other team. We've got this. And if we don't get this, we'll get the next one." Somewhere around Game 4 of the WCF, the Thunder stole that confidence from the Spurs. You'd never be able to convince me it wasn't Durant's doing. And that's why they're sitting with a 1-0 lead in the Finals.


Miami Summary

Game MVPs:
-LeBron James (30 pts, 9 reb, 4 ast, 4 stl)
-Shane Battier's first half (13 pts, 3/3 3FG)

Unsustainable Positives:
-The lights out shooting to start. I know these are professional guys and I know Miami built its team to be outside shooters surround LeBron and Wade, but two seasons worth of evidence is enough to discount one hot half. Especially from Chalmers.
-Starting the game with an 11-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. Everything was working for them early, and that's a common theme, but as the series gets more tense and the need for LeBron to exert his power grows, those assist numbers will drop.
-42 minutes for Wade and Battier. There's talk that Wade is injured, and maybe it's true, or maybe all of the unnecessary flying to the ground is catching up to him (sorry, cheap shot). They needed to play because it seemed like Miami could steal Game 1 on the road. Now that they didn't, you wonder if the minutes are going to slow them down in Game 2 (or further).

Sustainable Positives:
-LeBron getting to the hoop. This is not new, this is exactly what everyone has been saying about him for years and years. If he has a head of steam, there's never been anyone to compare to him (and I include Jordan, it's simply a matter of the physics of LeBron's weight).
-Ball movement. Like the Thunder, the Heat are almost unstoppable front-runners. Wade and LeBron are zipping the ball back and forth setting each other up for layups and dunks. When they're trailing, the offense goes stagnant.

Unsustainable Negatives:
-Wade shot 7-19. This is growing closer to a sustainable one as his effectiveness wanes. But he's going to have a game or two where it's all him.
-Bosh was 4-11 and a -16 +/-. He's a better player than that, no matter how much I like to see him fail.

Sustainable Negatives:
-All the missed jumpers in the second half. Wade has always had an issue with the jump shot. He came into the league without one, had one for a little while when everyone was terrified of him getting to the rim, and now it seems like it's fading on him. Instead, he's much more content with pump faking and trying to draw the lean-in foul every time he gets the ball. I'm growing very tired of his referee baiting. He's going to start looking like Derek Fisher soon.


Oklahoma City Summary

Game MVPs:
Russell Westbrook (27 pts, 8 reb, 11 ast, 2 to)
Thabo Sefolosha (9 pts, 2 stl, 1 blk, best on-ball defense in the game)
*Obviously there's a pull to include Durant. But for me, he could have had that game in a win or a loss. Westbrook rebounding from his poor start was a huge difference maker in the second half.

Unsustainable Positives:
-Westbrook had 11 assists and only 2 turnovers. That's very unusual for him. I think the Thunder could really use Eric Maynor's true point guard skill set off the bench.
-Team shooting. As a team, they shot 52%. Just not likely to continue against the Heat's defense, though they didn't really make too many shots I expected them to miss.

Sustainable Positives:
-Westbrook getting to the hoop. When he sits and watches his own game film, he HAS to see how effective he is when he's at the rim, and how ineffective he is taking long jumpers, right?
-Sefolosha's defense. They showed that he had 9 minutes in the first half. Perhaps it was a move to save his legs for the second, but I was significantly worried about the fact that the Thunder took Game 6 against the Spurs without a contribution from Thabo. Brooks needs to know that he needs to be on the court. And at this point, I much prefer his defense to be on James than Wade.

Unsustainable Negatives:
-They only got one really good 8 minute stretch from Ibaka and one buzzer beating jumper from Harden. I think Ibaka is going to make a much bigger impact defending the paint coming up. He had 0 blocks, which means he's due for like 6 in the next game. And Harden seems to be a guy who doesn't mind not getting his. He thinks, "It's no big deal. I'm gonna have my game. Just watch."
-They shot worse from three point (29%) and the free throw line (74%) than Miami (42%, 78%). That's just not going to continue.

Sustainable Negatives:
-Perkins had two turnovers. As many as Westbrook, on maybe 1/40th the number of touches. Don't pass him the ball if he's more than 8 feet from the basket. Seriously.

#067 - Thunder, Thunder, Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder's Game 6 victory over the San Antonio Spurs -- to vault them into the NBA Finals for the first time (usually what people say when they might expect a second, third, etc.) -- seemed like a transcendent moment. For a lot of reasons. A passing of the torch, a coming of age, the realization of potential. Whichever you want to call it. Here was a team that only four games earlier had been dangling over the edge, facing a 2-0 deficit against an absolute steamroller of a Spurs team that had won 20 consecutive games, almost all of them by a hefty margin. The Thunder were only days away from defeat, a second straight Western Conference Finals disappointment against a more experienced team. Only, nobody would have called it a collapse, like they would have with the Heat, or the Lakers. It would have been, tip your cap to the opponent, and OKC give yourselves a hearty round of applause for a fantastic season. In a lot of ways, they were just too young to be expected to win. Not when faced with the Spurs, a team that was not only in that moment playing viciously efficient basketball, but that also had years and years of playoff experience and countless combined championship rings to lean on. Not when led by the effervescent Kevin Durant, a happy go lucky 23 year old who glides through (the almost non-existent) criticism just like he glides through opposing defenses. There was not the weight of those expectations. The OKC fans were so great, they'd give a standing ovation no matter what the outcome. There was no chance they would let anyone down. They're a young team, fun to watch, fun to root for, but their championships were still future commodities. It'll happen some day.


Of course they took care of business at home in Game 3. San Antonio was gassed. They had won 20 straight but out-hustling, out-passing, and out-shooting their opponents. Every break was going their way, which was a striking blow to any naysayer who professes that you can't engineer your own luck. The Spurs were engineered. Well-oiled. But a little old. The Thunder rolled them in Game 3, a result the Spurs seemed somewhat resigned to, knowing, "Nobody goes undefeated." But Game 4 was an intriguing experience. The Spurs themselves got out-Spurs-ed. OKC swung the ball around freely, happily, letting role players get buckets and keeping the pressure off of the key guys. Whenever San Antonio made a run, the Thunder let them come, took a deep breath, and carried on. It's not that OKC's not prone to panic basketball. It happened many times in Games 1 and 2. Russell Westbrook, as electrifying as he is, is far too prone to one-man possessions. No passes, too many crossovers, and a wild pull up jumpshot that clangs off the rim. Kevin Durant, oddly enough, seems to transform into a wild passer when he plays panicky. Instead of forcing bad shots, which he almost never does, he'll leap into the air without knowing his destination, and then try to force a backdoor pass to brick-handed Kendrick Perkins, or a cross-court floater through three defenders. The Spurs were poise on poise, and were certain to take advantage of the Thunder's youthful miscues. Only they didn't. They took each blow and regrouped. They got the ball into the hands of their best playmaker (and without question one of the three guys in the NBA who should at least TOUCH the ball on every crunch time possession). Durant buried jumper after jumper. For a guy who's thin frame makes it look like he's exerting his last breath just to come around a screen or post a defender up, those jumpshots could have been made in his sleep. They're effortless. His arms are so long, it looks like the ball's halfway to the basket by the time he lets it go. That level of grace is addicting. Michael Jordan was a superstar in the late 80s, when he was a dunk machine, throwing down at every opportunity. But he became a legend in the mid 90s with a smooth stroke an a supernatural vision for weaving through traffic. Not that I'm here comparing Durant to Jordan, because I think they are wildly different, but whereas Lebron James represents the power (I'm not sure there has EVER been a one-on-five full-steam-ahead force like him, and I'm not just being superlative) then Durant most certainly represents the grace. His shots are just so damned pretty -- not necessarily his mechanics, but most importantly the splash of the net. Just watch this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtHq9RFQeqc

As it was, winning two games at home didn't necessarily cement that they were playing for a title. Being the lower seed, it was a requirement to win on the road to reach the Finals. And the Game 5 victory was one of the most impressive I've ever seen. Like Game 4, the Thunder spent most of the middle of the game with a lead, only to see San Antonio claw their way back in with an aggressive second half start. It was a true test. On the road, having surrendered a 13 point lead in what seemed like only seconds, it required a second-level leap in composure that I wasn't sure the Thunder had. They had won crucial road games in Dallas and Los Angeles, coming back from double digit fourth quarter deficits each time, but neither of those games had a Finals trip hanging in the balance. Both the Thunder and the Spurs had taken prizefight level swings at each other, and the game had basically reset itself, with only 15 minutes to play. OKC went back to a tried and true formula -- get the ball into Durant's hands. He was a calming presence, and Westbrook and Harden followed suit. I was really shocked at how they had done it, not just the fact of beating San Antonio on the road in Game 5 with the series at stake, but the fact that this young team (that had missed out on so many game closing opportunities last year versus Dallas) was able to collect themselves after squandering a sizeable lead like that against championship level competition. I understand the Thunder have as much (or more) talent when compared with any other team in the league, but talent's not everything. While I wanted them to be able to pull it off, I also knew that San Antonio could make adjustments better than anyone, and just when you thought they were down, they could stun you. In Game 6, they almost proved me right, coming out on fire, dropping every three pointer they could find into the bucket and racing to an 18 point lead. I can think of a bunch of arenas around the league where this would have been a death sentence -- Los Angeles, Miami, Philadelphia. It's a huge credit to the fans of OKC that the Thunder hung around in that game. They didn't give up. Maybe they knew something about this team that few others did. Maybe they had just seen this before and knew they had to play their part to get the guys back on track. They kept cheering, and the Thunder, like all championship teams must at some point, simply weathered the storm. They didn't panic. Scott Brooks, to his credit, didn't send out new rotations trying to spark a comeback. He trusted his guys. If it had been the regular season, the game probably would have been a throwaway. Beaten by a better team that was on fire. But they came back. Durant played a game that was out of this world. The first three quarters were three of the best quarters of basketball I'd seen in five years. I was watching the two best teams in the NBA trade buckets with each other, each one more devastating than the last. Then the game slowed, and got a little uglier. With five minutes left, the Thunder were up by 2 and both teams were staring a trip to the Finals in the face. Sure, OKC was great at front running. They could build on leads like no other team in the league, especially when their jumpshooters were heating up. But how would they respond to grit and nails? It just impressed me so much that they were able to close that game out. Everyone kept saying, "The close out is the hardest game, the close out is the hardest game." True, it probably was. Based on competition and circumstance, the Thunder's performance in Game 5 and Game 6 were likely the two best games any team played this season (and likewise, Lebron James's Game 6 was maybe the best game any player played all season). OKC stared down the barrel of a series defeat, and they came down on top.

Of course, Kevin Durant hugged his mom.

For my taste, there was a little too much elation after their Game 6 victory. I understand the league schedules a trophy celebration, and they give out hats, and the confetti sprays. But really, the season is not over. Despite having trumped the Spurs, who were seen by many as the best team in the game (rightfully so), there's still another team to face, and no matter who it is, they're not going to be a slouch. The Thunder have almost no answer for Lebron James. Who can guard him one-on-one? I realize that's a silly question to ask even about any team, since there is no physical match for him. But I mean, who is it that will actually take the task? It couldn't possibly be Durant, who simply does not have the strength for it. Ibaka? I would assume he's too big, and doesn't have the required footwork. That leaves Sefolosha and Harden. Sefolosha might be a more natural fit for Wade, but I think circumstances require Lebron. Only, Brooks has gotten into the bad habit of not playing Sefolosha at the end of games, oddly going with his "veteran's choice" lineup of Fisher, Westbrook, Durant, Harden and either Perkins or Ibaka. I would hope that he'd have enough time over this small break to realize that he'll need Sefolosha out there for significant minutes, whether it's against Lebron and Miami or Pierce and the Celtics.

The interesting thing at this moment is that not very many people are raising these concerns. As is what usually happens with the surprising "too young, too early" teams (like Lebron's Cavs team that the Spurs swept), onlookers are ready to congratulate the team for their accomplishments before the season has even concluded. There are articles posted about "Thunder Dynasty?" when really they have yet to win even one game in the Finals, let alone four in one season. It's fun to think about, and Vegas will tell you they are the odds-on favorite no matter who the opponent, but their job is not over. The resolve this team showed in Games 5 and 6 against the Spurs speaks to a group of guys that is not satisfied with merely pleasing everyone. They might be the second-least criticized team in the league (I would argue only the Spurs are less, as the only complaint most people raise is that they're old), but winning your conference doesn't guarantee a championship. Look at Miami last year. They've got work to do. And I'm pretty damned excited to see the results.

#066 - NFL Season Recap

It's hard to believe that the NFL season has already come and gone. Sure, the playoffs are here and I'm as excited as anyone for the playoffs, but the regular season in the NFL is the most salient regular season in all of pro sports. There are so many opportunities for fan interaction with the game, and you can't pitch a stone without hitting someone who follows the game. I'm a prime example of this, as I take part in numerous activities that are closely linked with the NFL season. Here's a recap of how they went this year.

1) Weekly Confidence Pool

12 people, $45 entry

I had a relatively poor start to my weekly confidence pool, which involves picking the winners of every game each week and ranking them with a point value 1-16. I ended up winning the pool on two separate weeks, earning $30 each time, but fell short of the overall season championship. I came in second, 21 points behind the winner, my dear friend and personal hero, James Moran. Still, +$15 on the season isn't bad, especially for a $45 entry. There are a possible 2282 points in the game (17 weeks, 136 pts per week, less 30 for byes) and I scored a final total of 1658 (72.7%). Honestly, I don't know what this means. But I'm recapping the results, and that is a result, so there it is.

2) ESPN.com Fantasy Football

2 leagues, 10 teams each; one free, one $50 entry

I ended up with first overall pick in both of my leagues. Sure, I should have taken Rob Gronkowski or LeSean McCoy, but could you blame me for going with Adrian Peterson? Considering how the year went, it was not good news that both of my teams were built around Peterson and Philip Rivers. On draft day, I couldn't have been happier. Today, I'm a little disappointed. Still, I managed fairly solid seasons, making the playoffs in both leagues (though I honestly stopped paying attention to the free league, an unfortunate side effect of not having prize money to play for). In the pay league, I waded through debilitating injuries to Peterson, Fred Jackson, and Miles Austin (who played maybe two games as the Miles Austin I expected), while Beanie Wells was habitually questionable and Rivers simply stunk up the joint. I squeaked out a third-place finish, though, thanks to ridiculous performances by Matthew Stafford, Jordy Nelson, CJ Spiller, and Aaron Hernandez. This earned me my entry fee back, so the league was a wash.

3) ESPN.com Pigskin Pick'em (Against the Spread)

Free entry, no prizes

This is perhaps the best free, prizeless contest you can participate in, because it's simple to enter and gauges your performance against tens of thousands of other contestants. ESPN.com also always enters its spreads with half-point values to eliminated the possibility of pushes, which is nice and simplifies the results. However, this results in better-than-expected performance against the spread, as there is typically an extra half-point of value added in to the side you want. I bounced around the top 1% of entries for most of the year, and finished ranked #506 overall. I'd guess there are about 75,000 entries who picked all the games, with probably 75,000 more that gave up for portions of the season. The overall winner had 160 correct, for a record of 160-96 (62.5%), pretty remarkable for an entire season. To put that in perspective, this person would have won 19 cents for every dollar they bet, had they placed a bet on every game (assuming odds of -110). My final record was 146-110, 14 off the pace of the leader, good for a win percentage of 57.0%. If I had been able to bet on these spreads every game, I would have made 9 cents for every dollar I bet. If I had bet $20 per game on every game across the season, that would result in a $460 profit. Not bad, considering you need to start with at least $320 before Week 1 to do that. However, you normally can't

4) Hilton Supercontest (Against the Spread)

Free; just tracked picks

I didn't actually ENTER the Hilton Supercontest (contest explained here) because it costs $1500 and requires contestants to turn in their picks IN PERSON to the Las Vegas Hilton (or what was the Las Vegas Hilton) every Saturday, but I did follow along, using the pool provided spreads and making my own picks. You need to pick 5 games every week from the list provided by the casino, and the eventual winner took home over $300,000 this year. The winner, a group by the handle Sans Souci, went 58-22-5 (72.5%), for a sick 60.5 points (pushes are worth 1/2). Using the comparison from above, they would have won 36 cents for each dollar they bet over the course of the season. If they had taken the $1500 they needed for the entry and bet it on 5 games a week, $300 per game, they would have profited $9180 for the season. Instead, they entered the pool and walked home with $300,000. They are smart (and lucky) dudes. My picks were not as good. For the season, I finished 48-36-1 (57.1%) for 48.5 pool points, good enough for 56th place had I entered the pool. Only the top 20 places get paid. Again, this would have netted me 9 cents for every dollar bet. So if I had just used the $1500 entry fee and put it towards 5 games a week at $300 per game, I would have made $2295, instead of losing the entire fee by not finishing in the top 20. Food for thought. Considering I started off the year 5-10-0, I'll take that finish, as I went 43-26-1 the rest of the way (62.3%).

5) Cash Money

Lots of cash in; lots of cash out

It's kind of sad. I went back and looked at my performance in past years in the "put your money where your mouth is" department, and it was pretty awful. I know the cliche is 99% of sports bettors lose money (which is funny because you never meet anyone who has ever lost money) but I will fully admit I was one of those 99% for the last three years. As well as I could do in the contests, I just made bad decisions when it came to real money, and would often wager on things I had no real knowledge of, like college football and Italian soccer. I firmly believe you can't be successful by passively following something, which is how I deal with college football. I like it, I can talk it, but in the past, I felt like the money I was making with NFL bets I was throwing away on college. So I decided to scrap it. The NFL is my primary interest, and that's what I wanted to focus on. So this year, I went for that. And the results were much better.

5a) Preseason Bets (from here)

Losses: 144, Wins: 180.99, Net: +36.99

Losses
-Cincinnati Under 5.5 Wins; 50 for 40
Yikes. This was nowhere close. But, they had an offense full of rookies and a defense that let go of its top cornerback. How was I to know they'd do so well? Oh, maybe because their schedule was very easy.
-Detroit Under 7.5 Wins; 25 for 28.75
Well, I was taking a chance. I knew everyone was all over the Detroit bandwagon. But Stafford and Calvin Johnson played every game, which was the first time in basically ever. And they had those three crazy comebacks early in the year. Without those, where do they finish?
-Pittsburgh Under 10.5 Wins; 25 for 25
It was even odds, their defense is sliding over the hill, and I expected something of a Super Bowl losing hangover. None of it happened. Also, their finishing schedule was insanely easy. That hurt.
-St. Louis Over 7.5 Wins; 25 for 25
I thought either San Francisco or St. Louis was going to win the West this year. I bet on the wrong one.
-Jamaal Charles Rush Title; 4 for 40
10-to-1 odds on Charles didn't seem bad, since he was going to have a bigger role in the offense this year. Of course, that bigger role led to his season ending injury. Oh well.
-Philip Rivers MVP; 15 for 150
Damn him. I mean, given how Rodgers and Brees played, I'm not sure Rivers would have won MVP even if he played safety and returned kicks. But he played poorly most of the year, primarily early on and during a crushing loss at Detroit to end their playoff hopes. I think he might have been injured.

Wins
-Indianapolis Under 9.5 Wins; 50 for 52.50
What a charm. Had this wrapped up in Week 9. The only regret I have is not going stronger on it.
-Green Bay Over 11.5 Wins; 25 for 28.75
Given the better-than-even odds for this, I'm disappointed I didn't bet it more heavily.
-New England Over 11.5 Wins; 25 for 21.74
They had to lose to the Giants to momentarily put this bet in doubt. But an easy finishing schedule brought it home, no problem
-Philadelphia Under 10.5 Wins; 25 for 30
Insanely good odds on this. It was part emotional hedge, part smart play. I'm an Eagles fan. I know we don't do well with immense expectations, and I also know we don't do well with a quarterback writhing on the ground. Both played a factor this year.
-Maurice Jones Drew Rush Title; 4 for 48
12-to-1 odds on MJD. Seemed like a decent call. His only real competition was McCoy, but the factors supporting MJD are easy: he's durable, and he's about the only good thing on that offense.

5b) Weekly Bets

I went ahead and logged all of my weekly bets this year, something that I think will be good as I move forward next year. I started the year off quite rough, skipping Week 1 altogether and then only winning ONE bet during Week 2. From there, though, things went well. Between Week 6 and Week 17, I had 8 winning weeks and only 4 losing weeks, culminating with a monster 96% return during Week 17.

Overall, ATS picks were okay. I was 92-81-9 ATS which turned out to a -6.00 loss. However, starting with Week 6, when I switched sports books, I was 68-56-6 for +202.00. THAT'S what I need to keep going with heading into next year.

I only placed a few ML bets during the year, but they were the best of what I did. I was 4-1 for +124.85.

Totals were pretty pointless. I was 7-7, and lost -2.00.

Parlays were my worst enemy for the year. And I gave up on them after Week 10. I placed 13 parlays during the year, won 2, and lost -171.94 on them. Yikes.

Turns out that teasers were my favorite utility that I had--but instead of betting atrocious 3-team, 10-point teasers like I have in years past, I stuck primarily to 3-team, 6.5-point teasers this year. The payouts are much better, and if you pick selectively, you can turn quite a profit. I was 27-26 on all teasers, which is not the greatest percentage, but it turned a +563.00 profit. That's the advantage of betting something that has better-than-even odds. You can go .500 and still win. The 3-team, 10-pointers are -110, which means if you bet 4 and win 2, you're losing money. Maybe teasers are still a sucker's bet, but I'm focusing on doing them properly--which is to move numbers across as many key values as possible. Instead of teasing something from -14 to -7, look for more opportunities to turn +2.5 into +9.5. (Ending on a half-number with teasers are important. A push is a loss, so having +10 is no better than having +9.5. It's the same result.)

Some of the things I need to be careful with next year are forcing things where they don't belong. That is, if it's Sunday night and I want to run one more bet before the end of the week, I'll sometimes pick a 3-team tease for the Sunday and Monday night game and throw in a total on one of them. This is not a good strategy. Good strategy is to find value in the market, not to bet just for the sake of betting (even though it's fun to do and hard to stop). Another problem I ran into a couple times was having too much dependent upon one team. If you make three or four bets and include the Falcons in every one of them, well, you better hope the Falcons pull through. I was pretty good about this all year, but fell into the trap this past weekend during the playoffs, when I was heavy on the Saints/Lions Under. Look how that turned out.