Sometimes, there isn't a ton of in-depth analysis to be made on a sporting event. Sometimes, there aren't hidden stats that help to explain the bigger picture. Sometimes, everything that you believe you're seeing is reflected in the outcome of the game.
Game 3 was one of those times.
The Heat didn't play that great. Their offense seemed simple: they made layups and dunks and free throws, but nothing else. So, their poorest possessions came when they dribbled and dribbled and then shot a jumper. Their defense defense was just about the same: when they guarded tight, the Thunder rarely scored, and they came up with a lot of takeaways. So, their poorest possessions came when they didn't get around screens or jogged back in transition. It was pretty easy to see, as you were watching the game, that this was a team that wasn't firing on all cylinders.
The good news for the Heat? The Thunder were firing on less. A lot was said about the Thunder finally playing a strong first half, not falling into a double digit deficit. They played good, not great, weathering an early onslaught of Heat layups and forcing them to shoot some jumpers late. Durant seemed to have it going when he got space (the space was easier to be found when it wasn't LeBron guarding him) but nobody else was really playing well offensively.
It was the first time, maybe all playoffs, that I could truly say the Thunder under-performed. And it's a shame, because the game was there for the taking. They built a 10-point lead off of Derek Fisher's absurd three pointer-and-one play in the third quarter, you know, the one right after Durant got his fourth foul and went to the bench. Ten points! On the road! In Miami! And then after squandering that with an offensively futile lineup (Harden, Cook, Sefolosha, Collison, Fisher ... seriously, Brooks?) they managed to cut it back to 1 with 1:30 left following Sefolosha's steal and Westbrook's jumper. The game was there for the taking.
Unfortunately, they didn't take it.
The last 1:30 of the game highlighted all the problems for the Thunder that the previous three plays had tried to erase: they fouled the Heat, often times far from the basket, the Heat nailed (almost) all of their foul shots, Westbrook missed a wide open three pointer, Sefolosha threw away an inbound pass, and Durant failed to establish himself in a good position to catch the ball and get a shot off. You might expect to see a similar sequence in a mid-February game against a lesser opponent, but in the Finals, you can't survive when you play like that in the most crucial 1:30 of the season.
That being said, I believe there are some positives that the Thunder can potentially take advantage of going into Game 4. It's up to them, however.
One: when Durant is trying to get the ball when guarded by James in the fourth quarter, it seems like he struggles mightily when trying to post him up and play back to the basket. This is not a surprise. LeBron James is close to the strongest player in the league, and in this series, is certainly the strongest player on the court. He has regularly pushed Kendrick Perkins out of the paint without much difficulty. In my estimation, Durant has fared better against LeBron when he has the ball already in his hands and is facing him. What does this mean going forward? Honestly, start watching some tapes of Allen Iverson. Far too often, the Thunder offense consists of Westbrook dribbling out top while waiting for Durant to position himself at the elbow for an entry lob, typically when they run a screen play to switch Durant onto Westbrook's defender, or when running Durant around a pindown screen set by Sefolosha. All season, this has worked fine, and you don't like to change the strategies that got you to the Finals once you're there. But they didn't play the Heat all season. When you stick out your butt and start backing into a defender, you're inviting contact. The refs will allow the defender more freedom to push you back, knowing that it was because you initiated. If you catch a ball out top in space and face a defender, any contact from that point is likely going to be a foul (thanks to the rules instituted by the NBA a few years ago to re-ignite scoring). Since fouling out against Boston, I believe LeBron James has shown an aversion to fouling. He feels that he's too important to the team (and he's right). Additionally, he doesn't see the benefit to fouling Durant, a good free throw shooter. I'm not a professional coach, and I don't have the experience these guys have, but from watching the games, I think you HAVE to start considering running Durant off screens or finding some way for him to catch the ball with space. If he adds 25 pounds down the road, then he can start making more plays with his body.
Two: John Hollinger, finally, thankfully, mercifully posted an article on his blog that breaks down the effectiveness of the Thunder's small-ball (KD at the 4, three guards) lineup using each of their three big men (Perkins, Collison, Ibaka). The article is here: PER Diem Blog. (Note: it's an Insider, so if you're not an Insider, I apologize.) The summary? Perkins played a bunch of minutes with the small ball lineup in Game 3, and was not effective. Collison, likewise, wasn't either (though he gets a pass in my book for playing with the small lineup sans Durant and Westbrook, as mentioned above). Ibaka only got a few seconds. So Hollinger went through the stats of the season, and found all the scenarios where Perkins, Collison, and Ibaka played with the small ball lineup. The results? Perkins was +5.0 per 48 minutes regular season, +5.3 playoffs. Collison was +20.3 regular season, +13.1 playoffs. Ibaka was +19.1 regular season, +19.7 playoffs. Yes, +5.0 is good enough to win games. But the reality is, they're staring at a dominant lineup, and not using it. Ibaka sat the entire fourth quarter. Why? He's faster than Perkins, a better shooter, better finisher at the rim, and a better shot blocker. Perkins is rather plodding. He takes a long time to gather himself once he receives a pass, has far too often begun to dribble with the ball and subsequently turned it over (traveling, steal, offensive foul), and has negligible vertical lift. That's not his fault. He's a large man with a history of knee issues. I credit the effort that he gives night in and night out, but he spent the fourth quarter being responsible for Chris Bosh (Bosh entered with 9:40, Perkins entered with 5:58). From 5:58 on, Bosh had 4 rebounds, including 2 offensive. Perkins had 1. I know that's a small sample size, but Bosh is simply too quick and too long for Perkins. His more natural rival would be Ibaka. I spent the entire second half saying this, and felt vindicated when the numbers came out to support my hypothesis. Each of these games has come down to a tense fourth quarter, with the game able to be won by either side. Spoelstra has stuck with his guns, playing his five best players a majority of the late game minutes (James, Wade, Chalmers, Bosh, Battier). Scott Brooks, alternatively, has not--sticking instead with Perkins and Derek Fisher for major minutes. Though Fisher continues to make surprisingly big plays, I still want to see the lineup without him on the floor. I understand that substitutions throughout the game is about managing energy and matchups. But to me (and to about every coach from what I've seen) the last six or eight minutes of a close game are when you ignore a player's rest and concentrate on getting your best lineup on the floor. The Thunder's five best players are Ibaka, Durant, Westbrook, Harden (despite his performance so far) and Sefolosha. Hollinger, amazingly, indicates that they've used this lineup for a total of FOUR minutes this season, which is an appalling number. Certainly not all their games have been against opponents like the Heat or Spurs, who both use a combination of one big man and four guards/small forwards, but this lineup needs to find its way onto the court. I'd be willing to substitute Collison for Ibaka, even, as I think Collison has more polished defensive rotational skills and is a better screener offensively.
Miami Summary
Game MVPs:
-LeBron James (29 pts, 14 reb, 3 ast, clutch free throw shooting)
-Chris Bosh (poor shooting but always seemed to come up with the huge defensive plays and rebounds)
Unsustainable Positives:
-They made 16 more free throws than the Thunder. I don't expect this trend to continue.
Sustainable Positives:
-Bosh figuring out how to impact the game when he doesn't get touches. Here's a guy who I watched absolutely obliterate his team's chances against Chicago with a 1-for-18 shooting performance. Tonight he shot 3-for-12, but instead of forcing it, got key rebounds and blocks. This is a scary concept for OKC, who must counter with more of Ibaka on Bosh, who is simply too long and too quick for Perkins.
-LeBron James getting to the bucket. This is a running theme.
Unsustainable Negatives:
-Their outside shooting, while not good, is not as bad as this. They shot something like 12% from outside the paint.
Sustainable Negatives:
-OKC was letting Wade shoot jumpers. He was taking them, and missing them, for the most part. This is again a running theme.
-Chalmers and Norris Cole combined 1-for-10. Luckily this time, Chalmers only had one turnover.
Oklahoma City Summary
Game MVPs:
-Serge Ibaka, sadly (seemed to make a nice difference defensively when he was in, but only played 22 minutes)
Unsustainable Positives:
-Four point plays from Derek Fisher.
-Forced 9 Miami turnovers in the fourth quarter. This is insane, and they're probably the only team to ever do that and still lose.
Sustainable Positives:
-Durant had it going early, but that was about it. Need to find this more consistently throughout the game. Far too often, he's content with letting his teammates take over the offense, as he likes to encourage a supportive environment. When your back is against the ropes in the Finals, this needs to change.
-Until the fourth quarter, they were doing a great job keeping control of the ball. The shots weren't falling, but they were maintaining possession and not giving up easy ones.
Unsustainable Negatives:
-I want to say such poor free throw shooting, but I'm not positive. They haven't shot well yet this series.
-It's not likely Harden goes 2-for-10 again. Crossing my fingers.
Sustainable Negatives:
-They were significantly out rebounded, which is something that needs to change. With the small ball lineup, Harden, Westbrook, and Sefolosha have to make a serious effort to get on the glass.
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