Simply put, I wish I had more followers. What's not to like here? We've got sports, movies, political commentary, and the occasional very, very odd post. I guess I'm missing out on a large segment of the male population by not having the cliche "Babe of the Day" post. And a large segment of the female population by deciding to ax my "Twilight Gossip of the Day" concept.
If anyone out there has any tips for how to become a more successful blogger, let me know. I want to be one of those people who is famous despite having no noteworthy talent.
Moving on to something that interests me, I'm deciding to tackle my first NFL post. (Oh gosh, let me rethink that wording...) I'm deciding to pound out my first NFL post. This past weekend marked the first Sunday of the season that I lost money, so it was a sad day for all, but comparatively, it wasn't so bad, only about US$90. (I like to pretend that I have readers from all over the globe.) I'm not quite at the point where I'm confident enough to start posting my spread "picks of the week" for you to bet on, so if you're interested in something more along those lines, mosey on over to this blog (and give the guy a break, it was a rough start to the season, and he's actually doing well on the games that he DOESN'T post). But I would like to share some thoughts of my own now that we've reached the 25% mark of the regular season.
Section 1: They Can't Possibly Be This Bad (Or Can They?)
The Titans. (0-4) You can't blame them for their opening week loss to the Steelers. It was a tooth and nail type game, and considering Super Bowl champs always win to open the season, a 13-10 loss on the road is commendable. And the upstart Jets got them in week 3, which should have been more of a coin flip if not for some seriously bad Titans turnovers on special teams. But the losses to the Texans and Jags stand out more. Why? Because they decided they didn't have ANY defense. The loss of Albert Haynesworth was pretty devastating to them, but he shouldn't have this much of an effect on the entire team. 37 points to the Jags? The Jags that had scored 12 against the Colts? What happened to the ball-hawking, cyclone-causing defense of last year? Lots of fingers are being pointed at Kerry Collins, calling for his head, crying out for Vince Young. I like Vince. I think he's one of the best college players of the decade. But he's never been very successful passing in the NFL. And like all young quarterbacks who are known for their wheels, I feel like he started doing that whole "I want to be a pocket passer" thing. If he's just going to step in and be a pocket passer, what's the use in switching QBs? Collins is a veteran, he's been there, he's never wowed anyone, but he's been successful. Honestly, I'd be more in favor of the switch to VY if I knew that he was going to open it up and use his god-given athleticism to make plays. But somehow I doubt that's going to happen. I think the Titans should stick with Collins, until they're sure that they're out of the playoff hunt. But right now they should be more focused on stepping up the defense. A crapload of points to Houston + a crapload more to Jacksonville = big problems. Still, I think they'll actually surprise some people and beat Indianapolis this week. Indy always struggles with Tennessee, and it's at home, and they need to get off the schneid.
The Panthers. (0-3) This one is a little bit easier to diagnose. Jake Delhomme stinks. I've never liked him as an NFL quarterback. Apparently neither has Steve Smith. I think last year's Cardinals game was just the collapse of his overachieving career. The thing about Carolina is, I think they have a decent number of pieces together to make a good team. Their running game is quite solid, if they can ever get enough opportunity to show it. But Delhomme has been so miserable at converting third downs this season, DeAngelo and company have been held to a limited amount of carries. Their defense is not horrible. It's an above-average NFL defense, despite not making any real key adjustments over the offseason. I might just be crazy on this one, but I think the key to the Panthers success is sitting out there in the form of a balding white dude. Jeff Garcia has been cut by Philly, and if memory serves me, this year's Panthers would serve as a totally appropriate analog to the 2006 Eagles. They have a top-notch running back, a good defense, a veteran offensive line, a veteran coach. The big advantage that these Panthers have is Steve Smith, a receiver of a caliber Garcia hasn't had the pleasure of throwing to since... yup. I know, I know. This is all kind of a stretch. But I like the Panthers. I don't think there's much to dislike about them (other than Delhomme). And I think Garcia deserves one last shot to resurrect a team from the depths of despair. Regardless, I'll probably still bet on Carolina in the weeks to come, and they'll probably still keep letting me down.
Darren McFadden. (145 YDS, 3.1 YPC) I've said it before and I'll say it again--I WISH the Eagles had this guy. I think he's dynamite. And I think the Raiders organization is the wet blanket stopping him from exploding. He's got no passing game, his defense can't get off the field (and is the worst case of one-man defense since the LeBron/Magic series), and he has a very good chance at becoming the most talented running back to lay a big fat egg for his pro career. This gripe is more fantasy-related than anything. Adrian Peterson is a beast, and man for man, he's better than McFadden. But if they switched teams, things would be a lot different. The good news is McFadden's injured for the next few weeks. Out of mind, out of sight.
Section 2: They Can't Possibly Be This Good (No, They Can't)
The Broncos. (4-0) I'm pissed about these bastards. They've killed me. Spread pools, spread bets, straight up pools, everything. I don't think they're this good. I'm hoping New England finally shows them the door. Kyle Orton is 17-2 as a starter at home in the NFL. Say what? That's absurd. Though in a sick kind of way, I'm enjoying the post-Cutler syndrome. That's what he gets. They've just been the complete opposite of what I've expected so far, and that annoys me. How does a team that last year played less defense than a cardboard box suddenly turn into Mr. No-Scores? Well, games against Oakland and Cleveland can't hurt. But something seems fishy about this. Now that Buckhalter has gotten his yearly crutches walk on, they're one Champ Baily tweaked hamstring away from 4-12.
Section 3: They Can't Possibly Be This Good (Or Can They?)
The Jets. (3-1) And Mark Sanchez for that matter. (Ladies-approved link.) I've heard a lot of talk about, "Who's going to be better, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, or Mark Sanchez?" I have to give props to Joe Flacco for how he's playing this season, and Mark Sanchez because I figured he'd be a bust (ahem... ahem...), but there's no reason to think that through FOUR games you can reasonably say Sanchez is on the same level as Matt Ryan. I think Ryan, more than the others, is the successor to Peyton Manning. He seems to have superhuman composure for a kid, and it was evident right from the get-go last year. I think it's only a few years before he catapults into the "Coach-on-the-field" status that Manning has been toting. I digress. The Jets' strength to this point is their defense. Unlike Denver, I think they have the personnel and coaching to continue deploying a wicked defense for the remainder of the season. Rex Ryan was blessed with freaks like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed in Baltimore, but he's proving now that he's no pushover when it comes to scheming--and more importantly, coaching BETWEEN games. He gets his PLAYERS fired up and prepared for the game, not just the playbook. That's the kind of difference that sets coaches like Jeff Fisher, Mike Tomlin, and Tony Dungy apart from Xs-and-Os guys like Mike Martz, Norv Turner, and (yeah I'm saying it) Andy Reid. As bitter as I was about the Jets after week 3, I think their loss at New Orleans (which I definitely saw coming) was the right stepping stone for the team. I think they needed that setback to dig in. If they can respond with a win this week against a rejuvenated and re-Chad-enated Dolphins team, I think it'll go a long way to cementing themselves as a real contender, and not just an early season surprise.
Section 4: Thoughts on Week 5
Favorites have been covering at an alarming rate. So this week, we're seeing the backlash from that. Philadelphia (-15 vs. Tampa) and New York Giants (-16 vs. Oakland) are taking the bulk of the heat. Both of these games are tough calls. Usually with spreads this size, you don't even want to bother with picking the favorites, and I guess that's what Vegas is trying to do. The Giants have been costing them money right and left, so if you want the Giants, you're going to have to take a gamble. I don't see the Raiders scoring more than 10 points against them, but with such a pathetic offense, there's no reason for the Giants to go out and slaughter them and run up the score. They only beat Kansas City by 11 points last week, and mind you, Kansas City lost to Oakland. Still, Oakland is on the road, 3000 miles away from home, no McFadden, with JaMarcus Russell at QB in the Meadowlands, so New York wouldn't be an awful pick. I hope the Eagles win of course, and I can see them covering that spread, but not enough to put any significant amount of money down.
Other games I like:
(Again, don't bet on these, just some thoughts that jumped out at me upon viewing the lines.)
New England (-3 1/2) at Denver. (See above.) Also, Belichick needs to lay the hammer down on Josh McDaniels. It's that simple.
Arizona (-5 1/2) vs Houston. The Cards are usually strong at home, save that season-opener against San Fran. And Houston is suffering through some swine flu-related troubles right now. Might not be good for travel.
New York Jets (-1 1/2) at Miami. The Jets' defense is a little more manly than the Bills'. This is the bounce-back I was referring to earlier.
Atlanta (+2 1/2) at San Francisco. I know they're traveling a long ways, but I think San Fran is in that tier of teams that Atlanta plays well right now. They might not beat the top-level guys like New England or Indianapolis or NYG, but they always fare well against the mid-levels. (They won at San Diego, Green Bay, and Minnesota last year.) Now that I think about it, I might steer clear of this one. Not enough evidence to support my initial hypothesis.
Section 5: Welcome back, big guy.
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