#049 - Envisioning the Hall

In light of my recent post on Junior Griffey and his imminent bronzing in Cooperstown, and also in light of a recent article I read about Chipper Jones (link here) which I found to be unusually aggressive and iron-fisted, I wanted to start looking around the league and trying to determine what players currently suiting up will eventually mount their bodiless heads in the Hall of Fame.

At the beginning of the year, I read an article which claimed that this year was the first in over 15 seasons where we didn't start the season with a mortal-lock Hall of Fame starting pitcher. While it's quite obvious that Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera are already voted in (with 91% approval), I scoured team staffs to try and find and argument against this claim.

Turns out, he/she was right. (He or she, as in I don't remember, not that the writer's gender was questionable.) The closest thing we have is a bunch of guys who we project WILL end up as Hall of Famers, as long as they give it a couple more solid years. But let's face it, the time of the 300-game winner is probably gone, pitchers don't pitch long enough into games and don't get enough starts per year to get into that range, which would require one to average 20 wins a year for FIFTEEN YEARS to get there. Go back and look up how many pitchers won 20 games for just last year. Go ahead. None. Exactly. So to average 20? For that long? It's a fantasy. Guys will have to be evaluated on their performance versus their peers, which is fair, because baseball is a sport in which era matters greatly. Babe Ruth was downright immortal because he clubbed 714 home runs when nobody else had 400. Pedro Martinez's 1.74 ERA in 2000 was ludicrous because his closest competitors were in the 3.00s. And Brady Anderson's 50 home run season was insane--well, that is, until the Mitchell Report comes out.

Here we go.

SECTION 1: DONE AND DONE

These players have already accomplished enough in their careers that if it ended today, they'd make it to the Hall.


SP: Pedro Martinez. His run from 1997-2003 was godly: 118-36, 2.20 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 1761 K in 1408 IP

RP: Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera. You need longevity to make it as a relief pitcher. And you need to be consistently great to earn that longevity. Hoffman might be awful right now, but plenty of guys end their careers with clunkers.

C: Ivan Rodriguez. The greatest defensive catcher of his time, also not a bad offensive guy either.

1B: I don't think any. I'm not the world's foremost expert on who gets in the hall and who doesn't, but I'd say Todd Helton might be the closest, and he has largely underwhelming power numbers at a power position playing in a power ballpark. .326 lifetime average is pretty unreal, though. Thome is a real question mark. He hit a bunch of home runs but I'm not sure you could ever really call him a great player. Plus there's some steroid speculation with him.

2B: Probably none, again.

3B: Alex Rodriguez, for sure. Might be a little tarnished by the steroid scandal, but probably not enough. It wasn't as catastrophic as Bonds, and he benefited from coming late in the game and getting to see others ahead of him apologize quickly and be forgiven. The guy I was reading says Chipper Jones as well, which, I guess maybe does fit. 430 homers, .306 average. Those are pretty stellar. Plus a boatload of division titles (if that means anything). And one MVP award.

SS: Derek Jeter, which pains me to say. Very good chance for Omar Vizquel too, on the Ozzie Smith "Incomparable Defensively" reasoning--though technically I just compared both to each other. 2700 hits, too, though.

OF: Ken Griffey, Jr. (Come on.) Manny Ramirez. Headcase, and who knows where he landed on steroids, but he's one hell of a hitter. Oddly enough, I'm not sure anybody else really qualifies for this category. Well, possibly Vladimir Guerrero, the way he's playing this year.


SECTION 2: LOCK IT UP

These guys are about as good as gold when it comes to future Hall ballots, though they haven't exactly gotten there YET.


SP: Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Andy Pettitte. It would help if Santana got to 200 wins and didn't divebomb in the next few years, but his pedigree is outstanding so far. People are saying Pettitte is for sure going to get in, and I think being a popular guy for the Yankees helps that.

RP: None. Maybe Billy Wagner? Closers are very new to the Hall, so I'm not sure how they value them so far.

C: Joe Mauer. How many batting titles will he win? All he needs to do is hit about .290 for the rest of his career and he's a dead-on lock.

1B: Albert Pujols. Seriously, he's almost in the "Done and Done" by now. Just inconceivable how good he is.

2B: Chase Utley. He's pretty much the best second baseman every year of his career. That has to earn you some mad props, and some high finishes in the MVP voting won't hurt.

3B: None that I can think of.

SS: None right now.

OF: Ichiro Suzuki. Don't sleep on his potential production. There's no reason he couldn't play til he is 40, and every year is another 200 hits for him, he could reasonably reach 3000 in less than 15 years of service. Already one of the 10 most efficient hitters of all time.


SECTION 3: PROJECTING

They're a long way aways, but I could totally foresee the future production of these guys resulting in a Hall-worthy career.


SP: Tim Lincecum, who already has two Cy Youngs. CC Sabathia. Roy Oswalt, only if he can regain form from a few years past. I'd love to say Felix Hernandez, who at 24 already has 63 wins, but he's a bit of a headcase and who knows how that will affect him. Stephen Strasburg--half kidding, but he's already disgustingly good.

RP: I'm not sure if closers will have the career longevity required to fit this bill. Possibly Francisco Rodriguez, but he's been very up and down. Closers seem to last about 3 seasons and then flame out, so it'll be hard to find others.

C: None.

1B: Ryan Howard could perhaps get there, with these filthy power numbers he continues to put up. Same could be said for Prince Fielder. Miguel Cabrera, though, tops both of them on consistent production so far, and he seems to only be getting better.

2B: Robinson Cano could win MVP this year. And if he secures some batting titles, like everyone has been predicting he will, he might get into range.

3B: Evan Longoria. It's VERY early for him. But let's hope he can keep it up.

SS: Hanley Ramirez. He's been the best shortstop in baseball for a few years, and at 26 is already 44th in Active Career WAR (wins above replacement). Very promising.

OF: It's all about sustained top-level production. There are plenty of great outfielders, but not enough of them are consistently in the top 3 at their position. A few more years down the road and this picture will come better into focus.