ESPN the Magazine's NEXT issue has been released. And as soon as I got a good look at the first two candidates, I knew that they had gone soft on their "bold" predictions--the top of the list looks more like NOW than NEXT. Here's a run down:
1. Kevin Durant, F, Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
3. John Wall, G, Kentucky Wildcats
4. Stephen Strasburg, P, Washington Nationals
5. Melanie Oudin, Women's Tennis
6. Giuseppe Rossi, F, Italy/Villareal
7. Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets
8. Ndamukong Suh, DE, Nebraska Cornhuskers
9. Gordon Beckham, SS, Chicago White Sox
10. Bobby Ryan, RW, Anaheim Ducks
11. Jake Locker, QB, Washington Huskies
12. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
13. Australian National Soccer Team
14. Simona De Silvestro, Car Racing
15. JR Celski, Speed Skating
16. Derrick Favors, F, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
17. Rory McIlroy, Men's Golf
18. Juan Martin Del Potro, Men's Tennis
19. Ellery Hollingsworth, Snowboarding
20. Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse Orangemen
20. Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse Orangemen
20. Jon Jones, MMA
Scanning down the list, certainly there were some names I had never seen before--Rossi, for instance (I may be a little ignorant on soccer, especially individual players), Celski (speed skating, really?) and Hollingsworth (Shaun White is as far as I go). But if there are names you don't recognize, it's likely because they play a sport you don't really care about. If you do care about it, you're likely to know them--and with today's snap judgment media tidal waves, you probably are already sick of hearing how great they will be.
Kevin Durant? Seriously? He's NEXT? Last I checked (which was five seconds ago) he was 4th in the NBA in scoring at 27.7 points per game. And this is not even new. Last year, he averaged 25.3 points per game. And before that, 20.3 as a 19-year old rookie. So what exactly does it mean to be NEXT for him? 40 points a game? He's already in the NBA, against the world's greatest players, and he's damned well holding his own.
The same can be said for Chris Johnson. If you have seen any football this year--or at the least any fantasy football--you know about this guy. Oh, and you knew about him LAST year, when he rushed for 1228 yards and 9 scores in 15 games for a division-winning Titans team. THIS year, he's leading the league in rushing--1396 yards and 9 touchdowns, despite his team's 0-6 start and having to play in games like the 59-0 loss to New England. Steven Jackson is second in the league in rushing with 1120 yards. That's right. 276 yards behind. Through 11 games. Johnson's not just leading the league, he's running circles around it. He has 312 more yards than Adrian Peterson (THE Adrian Peterson) despite 13 less carries--though he certainly could have MORE carries if he didn't always run 80 yards when he touches the ball.
As for Wall? He's been everyone's favorite college cover boy for about a year and a half. Where will he go? (Kentucky) How long will he stay? (One year) Why does he dunk so hard? (The shoes). He's already got the reputation as being "the" guy. So what news is it to announce him as NEXT?
And Darrelle Revis? I think he should be downright offended by his positioning. #7 on this list, even though there have been articles out about him being the best cover corner in the NFL since October? If you're a cornerback, and people say you're the best cornerback, where is there to go from there? I'm confused. (Deion: "The Yankees." Champ: "Offense." Nnamdi: "A real team.") Revis might have been a worthy candidate last year, or maybe two years ago, but at this stage, it's barely even useful to list him there.
I just think they've gotten flat with their coverage. They work all year, scouting, talking to people, interviewing players, coaches, those in the know, trying to find who the coming year's (and years') huge stars are going to be--but most of the time, they cop out. No-brainers. It doesn't do a whole lot to put a guy on the cover with the word "NEXT" underneath him when he's already been on tons of covers. They're not making a whole lot of noise--and even worse, they have no upside to their selections. When people look back on their previous "NEXT" picks, they either look foolish (Kazuo Matsui? I mean, yeah, he's okay... but...) or they were such obvious, beat-you-over-the-head choices that the only likely response is "Yeah but everyone knew that" (LeBron James, Patrick Willis, Dwight Howard). By digging deeper, finding some hidden gems that nobody knows about, you open up a whole bunch of new possibilities--either the players hit it big, which gains instant credibility ("We saw him first") and sheds a little more about what makes him go. Or, the flip side, the athlete crashes and burns, which also leads to a more lasting legacy, in the Brien Taylor or Ryan Leaf mold, with the potential for a one-hour special down the road investigating the failures of these once-promising yearlings. Either way, you're adding a little bit more fuel to the fire than making these easy, hand-delivered picks. Their list might make a little more sense in a wide-purpose publication, like the New York Times, or on 60 Minutes, or an antiquated website like CNNSi. But ESPN should consider its user base, and also the fact that the article is only privy to online Insider subscribers, a set of readers (like myself) who probably check in more than once a year, and have already been inundated with coverage on these athletes.
But I do love me some Kevin Durant, so...
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